Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　On September 30, Russia's Borei-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) Alexander Nevsky arrived at the eastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the major U.S. online newspaper International Business Times reported the same day quoting a story by Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency.
　　　　　While Russia had stationed the Borei-class SSBN armed with the new Bulava ballistic missile for the North Sea fleet, the Pacific fleet had had only old Delta III-class SSBNs of which the newest one had commissioned in 1981. These old subs had already terminated their service lives, being unable to conduct effective patrol missions. But the latest station of the Borei-class sub indicates the revival of Russia's Cold War bastion strategy of the Sea of Okhotsk.

Growing strategic importance of Northern Territories
　　　　　After the Cold War, Russia reduced troops on the Northern Territories as their strategic importance declined with the Sea of Okhotsk being no longer required to be a bastion. But the latest station of the new SSBN for the Pacific fleet indicates the resurging strategic importance of the Northern Territories.
　　　　　Therefore, we may have to acknowledge that Russia is now less likely to return the Northern Territories to Japan. Senior Russian officials have occasionally visited the Northern Territories recent years. Soon after talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida in Moscow on September 21, his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov made a rigid remark saying they had not discussed the Northern Territories issue. These developments indicate that Russia has no intent to easily return the Northern Territories.

What is Putin’s Japan visit for?
　　　　　Russian President Vladimir Putin is rumored to visit Japan later this year after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Putin on the occasion of their attendance at the United Nations General Assembly. Impressively, the president looked triumphant waiting for Abe when the Japanese leader was running to approach the president while smiling.
　　　　　Meanwhile, on October 1, the day after the new SSBN was stationed for the Russian Pacific fleet, USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier arrived at its home port of Yokosuka to replace USS George Washington that had been built 10 years earlier than R.R., demonstrating the U.S. administration's Asia rebalancing policy. U.S. State Department officials who criticize Russia's unilateral annexation of Crimea have warned Japan the time was not for going back to normal relations with Russia. What advantage can Japan get by inviting President Putin now at the cost of relations with the Unites States?
　　　　　When isolated from the international community after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, China considered Japan as easy to deal with and realized the Emperor's China visit in 1992, succeeding in escaping from the isolation. What actions has China taken since then against Japan that helped China escape from the international isolation?
　　　　　Russia, now isolated from the international community due to its Crimea annexation and armed intervention in eastern Ukraine, is looking for countries that it could exploit easily for escaping from the isolation. Japan should not devote itself to enhancing relations with Putin while whether his Japan visit could bring results is uncertain. It should not repeat the 1992 error.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.