Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Tadae Takubo

【#344】Le Pen-Trump Phenomenon Is a Product of the Time

Tadae Takubo ／ 2015.12.29 (Tue)


December 28, 2015

　　　　　What is the biggest issue in the world at the turn of the year? I am afraid it is not the situation of the East China Sea or the South China Sea. It is the first ever phenomenon in human history, in which non-state international terrorist groups and their supporters are twisting sovereign states around. While the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom and some other major countries were bombing strongholds of the Islamic State militant group in Iraq and Syria every day, a terrorist attack came twice this year in Paris and once in California’s San Bernardino, targeting soft targets of ordinary people asymmetrically and causing tragedies. Their impacts may go beyond our imagination in Japan.

Exclusionist assertions gaining support
　　　　　European countries plagued traditionally with immigrant problems have faced the new challenge of massive refugee flow from Syria. In the United States that should have been the world leader, President Barack Obama made an off-the-point remark in an interview with ABC a day before this year’s second Paris attack on November 13, saying the IS had been contained. Six days before the San Bernardino attack, Obama at the White House made an easygoing remark that his administration had taken all possible actions to maintain homeland security.
　　　　　I would like to call the current situation a Le Pen-Trump Phenomenon. French far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen won a remarkable victory in the first round of regional assembly elections in December before being defeated in the second round. Donald Trump, one of U.S. Republican presidential candidates, called for banning all Muslims, including immigrants, refugees and travelers, from entering the United States for the time being after the San Bernardino terrorist attack. Le Pen is running aiming for the 2017 French presidential election. Trump has gained dominant support as a Republican presidential candidate.

Similarity to the eve of Hitler’s emergence
　　　　　Sensible Western media view the popularity of Le Pen and Trump as temporary and fading away eventually. But may we judge them as low-level populists stirring up simple public sentiment? New York Times columnist Roger Cohen likens the present world situation to the eve of Adolf Hitler’s emergence after the collapse of the Weimar Republic. In a similar way to the process in which Germany became abnormal after being overextended with reparations for World War I, France and the United States are now quivering with terrorist attacks.
　　　　　No matter what the Le Pen-Trump phenomenon develops, the time is coming for people in the world to look for strong leaders who make unequivocal assertions. The international situation will not change only with reasonable persuasion.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.