Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　The Australian Air Force’s P-3 surveillance aircraft recently made a patrol flight over the South China Sea. On December 17, Australian Defense Minister Marise Payne vowed not to stop surveillance flights over the South China Sea where China was constructing artificial islands. The Japan Times on the same day wrote “[the Australian] move could focus attention on Japan.”
　　　　　Shortly after the U.S. Navy’s Aegis destroyer Lassen sailed through waters within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea as the Freedom of Navigation Operation in late October, a U.S. defense official said the United States would conduct this operation twice a quarter or more. But the United States is unlikely to do it again within this year, although the U.S. Air Force conducted a routine B-52 bomber flight in November and December respectively over the sea. (In a December flight, a B-52 reportedly passed within 2 nautical miles from an artificial island but it was unintentional and constituted no part of the Freedom of Navigation Operation, the Pentagon said.)

Surveillance on the way to and from Aden
　　　　　Defense Minister Payne has reiterated that Australia has national interests in the South China Sea. This remark is natural as a part of Australia could be within ranges of Chinese ballistic missiles that could be deployed on the artificial islands in the South China Sea.
　　　　　Given that vital sea lines of communication for Japan pass through the South China Sea, however, China’s construction of runways and ports on artificial islands may poses a greater threat to Japan than to Australia.
　　　　　Meanwhile, active duty Self-Defense Forces officers say the SDF are too busy with present missions to conduct continuous surveillance over the South China Sea under personnel and budget limits. At present, therefore, the only thing the SDF can do might be to have destroyers and surveillance aircraft for anti-piracy operations in Aden Bay off Somalia conduct patrol in the South China Sea on their way to and from Aden.
　　　　　China has raised strong opposition to any SDF surveillance over the South China Sea. Since I was the defense attaché in Washington, D.C., I have been confident that Japan’s implementation of policies to which China is raising opposition can benefit Japan’s security. (When I was in Washington, China raised strong opposition to Japan’s participation in the Ballistic Missile Defense program the United States was promoting.)

Isolate China further
　　　　　At the annual gathering for members of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals in November, retired Ground, Maritime and Air SDF Generals and Admirals said the SDF cannot launch any new missions despite a slight budget increase while missions are increasing with no personnel increase approved.
　　　　　At a time when the U.S. Obama administration is weak-kneed against China, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must take a concrete action to block China’s possession of the South China Sea from becoming a fait accompli, as far as he calls for “proactive contribution to peace.”
　　　　　As the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration plans to issue a ruling next spring on the Philippines’ suit over its dispute with China in the South China Sea, most international law scholars predict that the ruling would be disadvantageous for China. Singapore and Malaysia have accepted the deployment or the use of airbase by U.S. Navy’s P-8 surveillance aircraft for patrol over the South China Sea. In January’s Taiwanese presidential election, Ms. Tsai Ingwen of the Democratic Progressive Party that keeps some distance with China is well expected to win. As winds are blowing against China, isolating China in the international community further would be one of few measures to put a brake on Chinese construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.