Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　Any objective analyzers of international situation should not carelessly judge whether Britain’s leave from the European Union was advisable or not. Are 52% of British voters who supported the Brexit stupid? Without discussing the advisability, I view the international order shifts to a new phase in such manner while we don’t detect the shift.

Citizens’ discontent common to Western democracies
　　　　　The first point to which we should pay attention is that a brake has been applied on a postwar approach under which countries in the world created the United Nations, the EU, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other super-national organizations to resolve all international problems including political, economic, national security and cultural challenges in reaction to World War II.
　　　　　Brexit supporters were angered at the EU seen as infringing national sovereignty. It may be natural for them to complain that EU bureaucrats in Brussels ignore decisions by Westminster (British Parliament) particularly on immigration and refugee problems.
　　　　　The second point is that Western democracies have seen common phenomena. Council on Foreign Relations President Richard N. Haass, who can be said as one of the best intellectuals in the United States today, wrote for the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper on June 19, 2016. Haass noted in the column that (1) a decline in opportunities has replaced the American Dream under which everyone has a chance to rise, (2) free trade has enhanced the strategic position of the United States but is now criticized for bringing about job losses, losing support, (3) many Americans are disenchanted with intervention in foreign countries, and (4) Americans are discontent with allies that do not shoulder what they should shoulder along with the United States.
　　　　　These observations coincide roughly with rude comments made by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Ordinary people tend to feel strong antipathy to a leadership-lacking government and establishments benefitting from such government.
　　　　　The third point is that the roles of the NATO have changed. Lord Ismay, the first NATO Secretary General and British strategist, said NATO’s objective was "to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down." At present, however, the United States has discontent with the NATO organization, while Germany has become the largest power in the EU. If Scotland and Northern Ireland win independence from the United Kingdom, how much NATO may expect from military power of remnant U.K. as an important NATO member?

Totalitarian states gaining advantageous positions?
　　　　　The U.K. Independence Party that has supported the Brexit and rejected immigrants and refugees, as well as France’s Front National, the Alternative for Germany and the Freedom Party of Austria originating from Nazi Germany, welcomed Britain’s vote to secede from the EU. NATO will shortly hold a summit to demonstrate its unity. How are its realities? Democracies are looking inward while totalitarian countries, seeking to change the status quo with force, are looking outward. The former may happen to be in disadvantageous position and the latter in advantageous position in the relationship between the two nation groups.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.