Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was to visit Japan from October 25 after being cordially welcomed by Chinese leaders and even declaring a “separation” from the United States last week. “Japan is the key” to preventing the Philippines from tilting toward China, said Arthur Waldron, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, in a recent online chat with national security experts. Japan’s contribution to its alliance with the United States is being tested.

Has Duterte forgot lessons from the Mischief loss?
　　　　　The National Defense University of the United States regularly organizes a symposium inviting foreign graduates. As one of the graduates, I made a presentation on the U. S. rebalancing policy towards Asia from the viewpoint of an Asian ally at such symposium three years ago.
　　　　　Participants in the symposium included a Filipino graduate who was then an Admiral working for the Philippines National Security Council. I asked him if the Philippines made a great mistake when it expelled U.S. military bases by 1992 and gave China an opportunity to take Mischief Reef later. He answered: “Yes. We have learned much from that event. We don’t want to repeat such failure in the future.” In fact, however, President Duterte may be repeating a similar mistake.
　　　　　If the bases in the Philippines are not available, the United States may have to deploy two to three more aircraft carriers during a conflict with China over the South China Sea. A separation of the Philippines from the United States may cost Washington a lot.

Japan’s role as a U.S. ally
　　　　　The Philippines feels very friendly toward Japan. President Duterte, even though having told U.S. President Barack Obama to “go to hell,” seems to have a sense of affinity with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
　　　　　In such situation, Japan as a U.S. ally may have to explain to visiting President Duterte politely rather than authoritatively what kind of a country China is and how it has expanded territories in the South China Sea, citing specific historical events. Japan may also have to persuade the Philippine leader to take into account national interests for the future instead of paying attention only to immediate infrastructure investment from China.
　　　　　It is clear that China will take advantage of the Philippines’ greater economic dependence on China for strategic purposes, as shown by the past fact that China imposed restrictions on banana imports from the Philippine’s amid a bilateral conflict over Scarborough Shoal several years ago. The Chinese and Philippine leaders at their talks last week seemingly shelved the bilateral territorial dispute in the South China Sea. However, Japan should explain to President Duterte that China, even after proposing to shelve the Senkaku Islands issue, has been enhancing pressure on Japan over the islands.
　　　　　In order to defend the law and order of the sea and to serve national interests of Japan depending on the South China Sea for the major sea lines of communication, the Japanese government should act as go-between for the United States and the Philippines amid the deterioration of their relations and prevent the Philippines from dropping out of the camp of liberal democracies. If the government does so successfully, the United States will appreciate Japan as a reliable ally.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.