Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　While the two major U.S. presidential candidates wage a dirty fight where they criticize each other’s personality toward the voting day coming in three weeks, U.S. leadership in the Asia-Pacific region is noticeably fading away. In an alarming situation, China is taking advantage of the weakening U.S. leadership for expanding its influences.

China-Philippines relations turning better
　　　　　Indicating the weakening U.S. leadership remarkably is a rebellion against the U.S. by President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, a U.S. ally. U.S. President Barack Obama has tried to enhance military cooperation with Asian allies under his Asia rebalancing policy, one of his prime foreign policy initiatives. However, Duterte, who took up the presidency in June, has reacted against the United States that has criticized the extrajudicial killing of drug traffickers in the Philippines as violating human rights. Duterte hurled abuse at Obama, proposed to remove U.S. special operation forces from the southern Philippine island of Mindanao where they are supporting Philippine military to mop up Islamic extremists, declared an end to U.S.-Philippine joint military exercises and suspended joint military patrol with the U.S. in the South China Sea.
　　　　　While worsening relations with the United States, the Philippines has been improving ties with China. Duterte might have no intent to confront with China by taking advantage of an international arbitration ruling in July that denied China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea. Before his October 18-21 China visit, it was speculated that the Philippine president might strike a deal to please China by letting it maintain control of Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea if China pledge cooperation in Philippine infrastructure development and accept the resumption of Philippine fishing boats’ operations around the disputed shoal.
　　　　　The Philippine president will visit Japan for three days from October 25 right after his China visit. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may be the only political leader who could stop changes in political dynamics in the South China Sea. Does Abe or the Japanese Foreign Ministry have any recipe to keep the Philippines within the Japan-U.S. camp?

TPP’s strategic significance
　　　　　The economic pillar of Obama’s rebalancing policy is the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade initiative. Unless the TPP agreement takes effect, the Pacific free economic zone initiative led by Japan and the United States could fail. The TPP is a strategic arrangement to influence whether the Japan-U.S. camp or China would take leadership in building the Asia-Pacific order for the 21st century. We must not be defeated.
　　　　　While both U.S. presidential candidates Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump have argued against the TPP agreement, we must not give up. In a contribution to a U.S. newspaper, Ohio Governor John Kasich, who kept himself in the Republican presidential race until its final stage, warned that refusing to ratify the TPP agreement would risk America’s role as the world leader. Bipartisan former secretaries of defense and state have also supported the TPP.
　　　　　How about Japan? Why have leading politicians of opposition Democratic Party refrained from mentioning the strategic significance of the TPP? The Japanese Diet has begun to deliberate on TPP approval and relevant bills. The Japanese government must accurately communicate the strategic meaning of the TPP to the people and take leadership in ratifying the TPP to prompt the Obama administration to strive for winning Congressional approval of the TPP.

Yasushi Tomiyama is Senior Fellow and Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.