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Tadae Takubo

【#404】Can Japan Survive International Turbulence without Amending Constitution?

Tadae Takubo ／ 2016.11.04 (Fri)


October 31, 2016

　　　　　After reading a Sankei Shimbun column of October 27 written by its editorial writer Rui Abiru, who is said to have inside knowledge of LDP, titled “Reasons Why Discussion Won’t Develop despite Earnest Desire for Constitution Amendment,” I convinced myself.
　　　　　Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party have yet to take significant action to amend the Constitution even after LDP and other lawmakers supporting constitutional amendments won a two-thirds majority in both the Houses of Representatives and Councilors required to propose constitutional amendments for a national referendum. The reason for the inaction is that they may be slowing down as the House of Representatives is expected to be dissolved as early as late this year for a snap election for the reorganization of the Lower House early next year or Abe is possibly expected to remain in office for five more years with the limit on the number of consecutive three-year terms for the LDP president raised from two to three, according to Abiru.

Japanese are insensitive to international problems
　　　　　After advocating an idealistic theory of constitutional amendments for more than a half century, I cannot help feeling a sense of discomfort. I remember that during campaigns for a House of Councilors election more than three months ago, a former senior White House official told me it was strange to see East China Sea and other international problems surrounding Japan failing to become issues in the campaigns. Not only the LDP but also Japanese people in general are very sensitive to personal matters but insensitive to international problems.
　　　　　While serious events have been occurring in the East China Sea, Japanese politicians might have failed to recognize that Japan is on the brink of whether it can defend the Senkaku Islands within the framework of war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution or not. The problem is not whether a budget for the Japan Coast Guard should be increased. China will continue to exert pressure on Japan over the islands in the foreseeable future.
　　　　　As for negotiations with Russia over the Japan-claimed Northern Territories, Japan is seemingly casting a bait to attract attention from Russia. Some press reports said Japan is trying to eliminate the threat of the “Northern Bear” for the sake of Japan’s strategy towards China. Strategic thinking is very good. However, the Japanese government should understand the international situation correctly and be aware of nefarious diplomatic maneuvers Russia has continuously practiced. Do politicians and bureaucrats recognize that country-to-country relations are quite different from person-to-person relations?

Politicians must have a sense of tension
　　　　　The United States is unlikely to become a world-leading country after January 2017 even if Hillary Clinton wins the incoming presidential election. As secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton had promoted the Obama Doctrine featuring the avoidance of significant military actions. How should Japan respond to the new United States?
　　　　　The international environment is shaking Japan’s postwar Constitution system to its core. Nevertheless, politicians who had called for departure from the postwar regime may have lost a sense of tension or a high motive. The most important for me is not the LDP but Japan.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.