Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

Takashi Arimoto

【#1235】Ishiba Should Resign Soon after Budget Enactment

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2025.03.19 (Wed)


March 17, 2025

　
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s revitalizing power is being questioned over the issue of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s distribution of 100,000-yen gift certificates to 15 new LDP Lower House members through his secretary prior to his dinner with them. The question is whether the LDP could force the Ishiba cabinet to resign and elect its new leader soon after the enactment of a budget for the next fiscal year in late March or early April.

The LDP is still the largest Japanese political party, even though having lost a majority in the House of Representatives through a general election last autumn. Since opposition parties including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan have no ability to govern, the LDP has no choice but to continue to lead the national government.

Prime minister lacks leadership

While being aware that the ruling and opposition parties have agreed to settle the issue of political contributions by business and other corporations by the end of March, Ishiba handed out gift certificates worth a total of 1.5 million yen to first-term lawmakers who dined with Ishiba at the prime minister’s official residence on March 3. Ishiba said he used his pocket money to buy the gift certificates. While symbolizing himself as a clean politician free from political fund scandals, Ishiba exposed an old-fashioned influence-buying practice.

Furthermore, Ishiba decided to shelve a plan to raise the maximum limit of patient payments under a high-cost medical care system, scheduled in August, forcing the fiscal 2025 budget to be revised again as it has just been sent to the Upper House after passing the Lower House. Leaders must carry out policies even in the face of public opposition. This development made clear that Ishiba has no leadership.

No-confidence motion could be passed

Ishiba himself denied his cabinet’s resignation over the gift certificate scandal. Opposition parties, though criticizing Ishiba, believe that they would benefit from his remaining in power toward Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly and House of Councillors elections this summer. Amid the urgent need to deal with rising prices and the rapidly changing international situation due to the comeback of the U.S. Trump administration, can we allow the Ishiba government to remain in place?

Since the LDP lacks majority in the Lower House, a no-confidence motion, if proposed at the end of the ordinary session of the National Diet in June by the opposition against the Ishiba cabinet, is expected to pass. Then Ishiba has to dissolve the Lower House for a general election or resign as prime minister. If he chose to dissolve the Lower House, the LDP would be defeated in the general election. So, the Ishiba would have no choice but to resign. If the LDP elect its new leader just before the Upper House election in July, it could not be expected to recover its popularity enough to win in the election under the new leader.

LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama told a press conference on March 14, “We would like to make concerted efforts to minimize the impact (of the gift certificate scandal) on the election.” The only option left for the LDP is to elect its new leader soon after the budget enactment and reconstruct itself toward the Upper House election. Even if a no-confidence motion against the new cabinet is passed, the new prime minister could dissolve the Lower House for a general election coinciding with the Upper House election.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.