Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　The U.S. Navy's Aegis destroyer Lassen passed within 12 nautical miles (nm) of China-reclaimed islands in the South China Sea last week. China sharply reacted to the U.S. move and some official Chinese media exploited the incident for calling for accelerating the militarization of the artificial islands. Irrespective of the U.S. warship’s movement, however, China might have been set to exert sovereignty and establish the Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea to make military use of the artificial islands anyway. If the international community leaves China to do so, China may accomplish its possession of the South China Sea as a fait accompli.

Depict China as confronting with international community
　　　　　On October 29, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague decided to arbitrate between the Philippines and China over their dispute in the South China Sea as applied by the Philippines, overriding resistance from China.
　　　　　USS Lassen's penetration has symbolized a “China vs. the U.S.” confrontation. However, unless we promote the structure to a “’China trying to change the status quo by force’ vs. ‘the international community attempting to prevent China from doing so,’” it may be difficult to block the unreasonable push by China asserting that its sovereignty covers the almost entire South China Sea.
　　　　　Australia is considering participating in the U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) as reported by The Wall Street Journal on October 28. As a matter of course, Philippine President Benigno Aquino endorsed the U.S. warship's penetration into the Chinese-claimed waters. Japanese Government should dispatch Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers to join the FONOPs together with U.S. naval vessels.
　　　　　This is because China defined not only almost all of the South China Sea but also the East China Sea including Senkaku Islands as their territorial waters by her Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone in 1992. China asserts that it has exerted sovereignty over the South China Sea since ancient times and may apply the assertion to the East China Sea as well.
　　　　　Japan cannot be indifferent to the South China Sea problem not only because most of sea lines of communication for Japan pass through the South China Sea, but also because China is well expected to claim sovereignty over the East China Sea as well. Some international media and articles have viewed as problematic Japan's attitude against its engagement with the South China Sea, including the Internet magazine Diplomat that carried an article titled "Why Japan Won't Get Too Involved in the South China Sea" on October 29 and THE STRATEGIST of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that posted an article titled “Will Japan join the US in freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea?” on October 30.

Is Okinawa following failure of the Philippines?
　　　　　According to press reports, the U.S. Aegis destroyer passed within 12 nm of Subi and Mischief Reefs where China has reclaimed artificial islands. China occupied Mischief Reef by taking advantage of power vacuum created after the Philippines closed the U.S. Subic Naval and Clark Air Force Bases in 1992. Any territory taken by China once will never be returned.
　　　　　Okinawa Prefecture Gov. Takeshi Onaga is about to follow the failure of the Philippines. He should proceed with construction work to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko in Okinawa rather than to any location outside the prefecture without making a fuss. If not, the Senkaku Islands may follow the same fate as Mischief Reef.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.