Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Maki Nakagawa

【#1230】China Builds Up Missiles Capable of Attacking Japan

Maki Nakagawa ／ 2025.03.05 (Wed)


March 3, 2025

　
In recent years, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has significantly increased its personnel and equipment. In particular, missiles capable of attacking mainland Japan have increased qualitatively and quantitatively, as confirmed by satellite imagery.

Beijing has acquired capability to break through Japan’s BMD

Chinese conventional missile units capable of attacking mainland Japan are likely to be the 614th, 627th, and 655th brigades armed with DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), and the 635th and 656th brigades with CJ-10 and CJ-100 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs).

The DF-17 equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) is more difficult to intercept than a ballistic missile because the HGV’s trajectory is not easy to predict. The CJ-100, a cruise missile that is difficult to be detected by radar because of its low-altitude flights, has a range of 3,000-4,000 kilometers. It can fly autonomously at supersonic speeds of up to Mach 4 over long distances to attack targets with pinpoint accuracy.

Changes in satellite imagery photos of garrisons for these brigades show that the 655th brigade is now operated as a DF-17 unit with a new garrison added in 2024. For each of the other four brigades, missile-related facilities of a brigade size have also been constructed since 2018-2019. They have been almost completed by 2024 and may have already become operational.

With the deployment of these missiles, China can be said to have acquired capability to penetrate Japan’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) system.

Nuclear missile units have also been built up

While the 611th brigade armed with DF-21A MRBMs in Anhui Province had been viewed as a nuclear missile unit capable of attacking mainland Japan, an official Chinese report in October 2024 revealed that the brigade’s equipment had been upgraded to the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with twice the range of the DF-21A. Satellite imagery shows the deployment of DF-26s to the brigade’s garrison and the construction to expand it in 2024.

In addition, the existence of three other brigades armed with DF-26s have been confirmed. The DF-26, with range to hit Guam as well as Japan, can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead. Therefore, it is not easy to determine which brigades are mainly aimed at Japan and whether warheads are nuclear or conventional.

Japan should enhance its counterstrike capabilities

Chinese missile units capable of attacking mainland Japan have been increased both qualitatively and quantitatively, raising their threat level. Furthermore, as it has become difficult to determine which units will launch missiles against Japan, Japan needs to monitor trends in their movement extensively and continuously to assess Chinese threats.

In addition to strengthening its defense capabilities against HGVs and supersonic cruise missiles, Japan needs to develop counterstrike capabilities for deterrence and build protection shelters in line with real threats, since any missile defense system will fail to intercept some missiles.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.