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Kiyofumi Iwata

【#1266】Japan Should Revise Outdated Strategy Documents Within This Year

Kiyofumi Iwata ／ 2025.07.02 (Wed)


June 30, 2025

　
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization at its summit on June 25 approved a goal of increasing defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in each member country by 2035. Earlier, on May 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Asian U.S. allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, warning of the need for a stronger sense of urgency to prepare for China’s potential invasion of Taiwan.

Capabilities first, figures later

In response to these developments, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized at a briefing on June 26 that the government would closely monitor developments in Europe. He then reiterated the government’s view on defense spending, saying, “What matters is not the amount of defense spending, but the substance of defense capabilities.” Indeed, it is not reasonable to increase defense spending based on predetermined figures. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba explained at a press conference on June 23, it is important to “properly accumulate what are necessary.” It is essential for the government to formulate a strategy to defend the nation as the base for the accumulation and gain the public’s understanding of the need to increase defense spending.

On May 2, Secretary Hegseth already instructed the Pentagon to develop a U.S. national defense strategy by August 31. Naturally, Japan, in coordination with the U.S. move, should revise its three strategic documents including the National Security Strategy by the end of the year at the latest to clarify defense capabilities that must be developed from 2026. As a result, the government will able to present defense spending as a percentage of GDP.

Gather wisdom to keep U.S. engaged

Japan’s three strategic documents formulated in late 2022 have become obsolete due to the prolonged war in Ukraine, China’s rapid military expansion, and the emergence of the “America First” Trump administration. In response to the dramatically changing strategic environment, Japan should bring forward its defense buildup plans that were originally scheduled by 2027, and promptly restart the development of defense capabilities based on a new strategy starting in 2026.

What is crucial in this regard is the ability to gain superiority in areas such as space, drones, artificial intelligence (AI), and air defense, as well as concrete measures to involve the United States that compel Washington to view its alliance with Tokyo as being beneficial to it. In particular, concrete measures to ensure the effective operations of U.S. forces stationed in Japan during peacetime and those deployed in contingencies — as emphasized as important by Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby on March 5 — will enhance Japan-U.S. deterrence, benefiting both Japan and the U.S.

It would be prudent to address U.S. calls for increased defense spending by not only focusing on core defense expenditures, but also incorporating a wide range of investments, including defense-related infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.