Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　On July 1, the U.S. Joint Chief of Staff released the latest National Military Strategy that most clearly shows among published U.S. official documents that the U.S. military deems China a de facto potential enemy. The report calls China and three other countries "potential state adversaries" and concludes that these states are acting in a manner that threatens U.S. national security interests.

"Potential state adversary"
　　　　　The report published for the first time in four years features some remarkable points:
　　　　　First, the report positions China as a potential state adversary for its reclamation and military facility construction in the South China Sea, in addition to Russia that annexed Ukraine's Crimea with the threat of military force, and Iran and North Korea that are developing nuclear and missile technologies.
　　　　　The National Military Strategy probably is the first published U.S. government document that places China as similar to Iran and North Korea known as representative "rogue states" and to Russia that has destroyed the post-Cold War European order. It expresses the U.S. military's concern about China's "aggressive land reclamation efforts that will allow it to position military forces astride vital international sea lanes."
　　　　　The National Military Strategy also calls the four countries "revisionist states." Such states are negatively described as attempting to revise key aspects of the international order and challenging international norms.
　　　　　Second, the National Military Strategy offers a view that the probability of U.S. involvement in interstate war with a major power is assessed to be "low but growing." It says U.S. military will deter potential state adversaries from attacking the United States and its allies, deny adversaries their goals in case of aggression and decisively defeat them should they attack the United States or its interests.
　　　　　This part can be taken as expressing the U.S. military's determination to work with allies in fighting against possible Russian invasion of the three Baltic former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and such former Soviet bloc countries as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria that have joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and against possible Chinese attacks on Japan or the Philippines that has bilateral security treaties with the United States. In fact, Ukraine as one of former Soviet republics has yet to join NATO and is not viewed as a U.S. ally.

Will a U.S. warning bell reach Japan?
　　　　　The National Military Strategy also warns against "hybrid conflicts" that may be comprised of state and non-state actors working together toward shared objectives. This term was originally applied to Russia's projection of armed forces assuming a non-state identity in Ukraine. It can be used to describe Chinese tactics to land People's Liberation Army soldiers on Japan's Senkaku Islands disguising them as fishermen.
　　　　　It is not clear whether the Barack Obama administration hesitant about overseas military intervention shares the sense of crisis against China with the U.S. military leadership. But the National Military Strategy's warning bell at least should have been heard by administration leaders.
　　　　　The problem is whether the warning bell would reach Japan across the Pacific. Most of opposition camp lawmakers who reject the pending national security bills as unconstitutional may have no capacity to understand the reality of military tensions between the United States and China despite repeated explanations.

Yasushi Tomiyama is Senior Fellow and Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.