Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
In a House of Representatives election on October 27, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, fell short of achieving the simple majority of 233 seats that Prime Minister and LDP President Shigeru Ishiba set as the victory or defeat bar for the ruling camp. Nevertheless, Ishiba as well as LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama expressed their intention to remain in office (as of October 27). In 2007, when then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to remain in office despite the LDP’s crushing defeat in a House of Councillors election, it was none other than Ishiba that urged Abe to resign, saying, “It is unreasonable for him to remain in office despite the election defeat.” Given that the number of LDP seats in the 465-seat lower house decreased by more than 50 from 247 to 191, Ishiba should remember his own sound argument 17 years ago and resign as prime minister and LDP leader.

LDP’s lack of governance

During the House of Representatives election campaigns, I watched Prime Minister Ishiba’s speeches that included no clear message to voters about why he was seeking a popular mandate through the election. The election is designed for voters to choose a governing party or parties. The main campaign themes for the latest election should have been economic policies, especially measures to overcome deflation, and strengthening deterrence to deal with the severe security environment surrounding Japan, including China’s military coercion. However, Ishiba failed to differentiate his LDP from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party. Rather, he always tried to gauge some voters’ feelings, as did his predecessor Fumio Kishida. Many voters might have had no choice but to cast votes for opposition parties to punish the LDP.

A series of misjudgments by Moriyama and other LDP top officials have also contributed to the defeat. During campaigns for the LDP’s presidential election in September, Ishiba had vowed to convene the Diet’s budget committees for thorough debates with opposition parties after the inauguration of his new cabinet. However, he skipped budget committee meetings to move up the dissolution of the lower house for the general election in response to Moriyama’s persuasion that an earlier election would be more advantageous for the LDP.

Moriyama caused confusion when he once said the LDP would officially endorse candidates who had failed to include some income from fund-raising parties into their political fund reports, but when he came under criticism, he decided to decertify 12 candidates. And, critically, Moriyama provided 20 million yen, the same amount as the certified candidate, to LDP branches headed by the decertified candidates. Governance failed to work within the LDP, leading to the party’s self-destruction. The ultimate responsibility for the lack of LDP governance lies with LDP leader Ishiba himself.

LDP should be rebuilt around Takaichi and Kobayashi

The LDP presidential election in September was an opportunity for the LDP to change. Although LDP presidential candidates included former Economic Security Ministers Sanae Takaichi, who sought to become Japan’s first female prime minister, and Takayuki Kobayashi in his 40s, Ishiba won the election with support from then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and others who did not want any major change. The time has come for the LDP to change, especially with Takaichi and Kobayashi. Voters struck a fine balance, not making the opposition CDP, which is far from competent to hold the reins of government, the largest party in the lower house. The party got 148 seats. Much time is not left for the LDP to change. It should not miss the chance.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.