Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Kiyofumi Iwata

【#1272】Any Political Upheaval in China?

Kiyofumi Iwata ／ 2025.07.16 (Wed)


July 14, 2025

　
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 6-7 has sparked a lot of speculation. As this marks the first time Xi has missed the BRICS summit, an organization often seen as being led by China, some reports suggest that Xi may have serious health problems, while others claim that he may be unable to leave Beijing due to an intensifying power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party.

Speculation of Xi’s health problems and power struggle

Amid speculation over Xi’s health, attention was drawn to a remark made by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during the Second China–Central Asia Summit held in Kazakhstan on June 16. Tokayev greeted Xi by saying, “I wish President Xi good health, happiness for his family, and continued success in governing the country.” Although a Kazakh news agency reported that Tokayev touched on Xi’s health, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency did not cover it, according to journalist Kaori Fukushima. This has led to speculation that mentioning Xi’s health may be taboo in China’s official media.

A possible power struggle within the CCP was reported by the Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times on June 30. According to the newspaper, internal struggles within the military may have been behind the downfall of He Weidong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Miao Hua, a CMC member — both of whom were selected by President Xi to join the CMC. Xi reportedly positioned these two figures to lead a purge against military strongman Zhang Youxia, the other vice chairman of the CMC, and his aides. However, the plan appears to have backfired, resulting in the ousting of Xi’s own confidants and a failure to consolidate control over the military.

Comments denying Xi’s ouster

However, Homare Endo, a professor emeritus at the University of Tsukuba, pointed out that Xi was absent from the BRICS summit because of more important events. “Since this year marks the 80th anniversary of China’s victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan, Xi Jinping is giving top priority to events related to the war,” she said, citing the fact that China Central Television reported that Xi laid flowers to the martyrs of the resistance war and visited the Hundred Regiments Offensive Memorial Hall in Yangquan, Shanxi Province, on July 7 to mark the anniversary of the 1937 Marco Polo Bridge Incident.

In addition, Akio Yaita, a former Taipei bureau chief of the Sankei Shimbun newspaper, dismissed the speculation of Xi’s downfall. “When leaders Hua Guofeng and Hu Yaobang were ousted, there were major changes in Xinhua’s reports and large-scale personnel reshuffles. No such signs have been seen recently.”

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s exercises, which have been analyzed by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals, indicate that steady and practical drills have been accumulated to establish a military posture to invade Taiwan by 2027 as instructed by Xi. It may be safe to assume that the PLA is not in a situation to stage a coup d’état.

For the immediate future, it would be better to coolly monitor China’s political developments.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.