Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Takashi Arimoto

【#1197】Prime Minister Ishiba Should Give Up on U.S. Visit

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2024.11.13 (Wed)


November 11, 2024

　
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba talked with Donald Trump over phone for 5 minutes, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for 12 minutes, and French President Emmanuel Macron for 25 minutes after Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Given that the talks were for conveying congratulatory messages to Trump, the order or the length of conversation may not matter. Japanese government officials emphasize that Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump during his planned U.S. visit in the second half of November will be decisively important. Given the severe domestic situation surrounding Ishiba, however, he had better give up on the U.S. visit.

An unstable government is not taken seriously

The late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe established a honeymoon relationship with Trump that was the envy of other countries, partly because there was a good chemistry between them, but also because Abe had a stable domestic support base and was in power for a long period.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had passed over Japan while visiting China frequently before Abe’s comeback to the premiership, told Abe that he was likely to stay in office long, and she became willing to meet him.

Any political leader whose government base is unstable is not taken seriously by other countries. In particular, Trump prefers to deal with strong foreign leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whether they lead democracies or autocracies.

Moreover, the situation is very different now from when Abe met Trump in November 2016 before Trump took office. At the time, Abe was in a position to brief Trump, who had no diplomatic experience, on the situation in China and other issues, but now Trump is confident as he has been president for four years. It will be a big mistake if Ishiba, who has seen Abe as a rival, believes that he can deal with Trump in a different way. It may not be too late for Ishiba to meet Trump after he takes office in January and appoints key cabinet members such as the secretary of state and the secretary of defense.

Hasty talks will harm Japan’s national interests

What can Ishiba promise at a meeting with Trump in November after his ruling coalition lost the majority in the October 27 House of Representatives election and had key parliamentary posts such as the lower house budget committee chair taken by opposition parties? I don’t expect he will bring up his well-known proposals for an Asian NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or the revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement. But, even if Ishiba were to make any promises, they would be unlikely to be carried out as his ruling coalition has no lower house majority.

I repeat. There is no need for Ishiba to hastily meet President-elect Trump in the current situation where it is unclear if Ishiba can retain his administration until April next year. Such a meeting will only harm Japan’s national interests.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.