Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
Although in different directions, both the United States and China are seeking to fundamentally transform the postwar international order. In 2025, the world will naturally experience big changes more clearly. While Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to revive the Chinese Empire, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump insists U.S. allies should be strong countries that fulfill their primary responsibilities instead of relying on the U.S. Big changes similar to tectonic deformation will come out. Instead of being afraid of such changes, we should take advantage of them to break away from the postwar regime without fail.

Japan, though having been unable to break the spell of the current U.S.-made constitution and become a truly independent country over the 80 years since the end of World War II, must turn ongoing international order changes into an opportunity to muster the courage to develop its new path.

Minister Iwaya revives apology diplomacy

In this sense, I worry seriously about Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s hasty approach to China. At a time when an increasingly isolated China is maneuvering to get what the Chinese call Japan’s exclusively-U.S.-oriented foreign policy back to a policy of balancing Japan-U.S. alliance with Japan-China cooperation, the Ishiba government seems getting ahead of itself.

In December last year, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visited China and met with Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The principle of “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” advocated by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to improve Japan-China relations had disappeared since 2017 partly due to Xi Jinping’s foreign policy of disrespecting Japan. However, Iwaya emphasized his stance of restoring the principle as the base of Japan-China relations.

Moreover, Iwaya told Wang, “Japan continues to uphold the clear position of former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama’s statement (in 1995 that apologized for Japan’s aggression against Asia) regarding history issues and expresses deep remorse and heartfelt apology.” In an interview with Chinese media before his visit, Iwaya said, “Japan made a mistake in its national policy for a period of time.” Asked if he meant he would inherit the Murayama Statement and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono’s statement in 1993 that effectively acknowledged Japan’s coercive recruitment of comfort women during the war and apologized for it, he replied, “Yes.”

In a manner to put an end to the so-called apology diplomacy, then Prime Minister Abe in a statement in 2015 on the 70th anniversary of the end of the war said, “We must not let our children, grandchildren, and even further generations to come, who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize.” Nevertheless, Iwaya abruptly revived the past diplomacy.

Avoid being won over by China

Ishiba and Iwaya would like to realize Wang’s visit to Japan at the earliest opportunity. Masahiko Hosokawa, a member of the planning committee of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals, believes that Beijing’s haste to improve relations with Japan stems from its efforts to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement. As soon as TPP accession negotiations begin, Beijing can negotiate with each TPP member individually. Beijing is known as good at such bilateral negotiations. However, the inclusion of China into the TPP would run counter to the agreement’s original strategic purpose of containing China economically. Is the Ishiba government trying to nullify the Abe’s achievement of having concluded the TPP after the U.S.’ withdrawal?

Both the U.S. and China will try to greatly transform the international order. Trump will press Japan to fulfill its greater responsibility. This will bring about a good opportunity for Japan. We must take advantage of the changes in the U.S. and China to amend the constitution and revitalize Japan as a truly independent country.

In this year when a grand strategy based on spirit is required, Ishiba’s policy of wooing China is a bad move.

Yoshiko Sakurai is President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.