Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Maki Nakagawa

【#1222】China’s Salami Tactics Underway around Senkakus

Maki Nakagawa ／ 2025.02.13 (Thu)


February 10, 2025

　
On February 6, the China Coast Guard replaced a fleet operating around Japan’s Senkaku Islands. All four ships that entered the contiguous zone around the Senkakus on the day are armed with 76mm guns. This is the second time that all four CCG ships in the contiguous zone were armed with 76mm guns, following last December. After confirming that Japan’s reaction was not so strong in December, Beijing may have decided to launch a more coercive action.

Ships with 76mm guns may intrude into Japan’s territorial waters

The four CCG ships armed with 76mm guns that entered the contiguous zone on December 6 carried out operations till January 8 and returned to China, without intruding into Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkakus. The replacement CCG fleet that was composed of one ship armed with 76mm guns and three ships with 30mm guns entered the contiguous zone on January 8 and intruded into Japan’s territorial waters shortly after the arrival. Usually, a four-ship CCG fleet operating around the Senkakus intrudes into the territorial waters once a month before being replaced with a new fleet.

The fact that the four ships with 76mm guns operated around the Senkakus in December returned to China without intruding into the territorial waters indicates that Beijing was trying to test Tokyo’s reaction. During the period, Beijing made efforts to improve relations with Tokyo ahead of the inauguration of the second Trump administration in the United States. China may have attempted to check whether and how the four CCG ships’ activities would affect the efforts and lead the Japan Coast Guard to upgrade patrol ships to counter the CCG operation.

The CCG fleet of one ship with 76mm guns and three with 30mm guns that operated around the Senkakus from January 8 was replaced on February 6 with the fleet of four CCG ships with 76mm guns, exactly the same ships that had entered in the contiguous zone in December.

In February, the four ships with 76mm guns may intrude into the territorial waters. Given that Tokyo made no strong reaction to their operation in the contiguous zone over one month from early December, Beijing may have decided to strengthen the CCG operation around the Senkakus, concluding that the fleet’s presence is unlikely to affect Japan-China relations or lead to Japan’s enhancement of defense posture around the Senkakus.

Government should inform people of any change

This kind of move is a typical Chinese salami-slicing tactic in which China accumulates small steps to create a fait accompli, while checking foreign reactions. The CCG fleet operating around the Senkakus has been gradually strengthened. The possibility that a JCG patrol ship only equipped with a maximum of 40mm guns could be attacked from outside the range of the guns by the CCG ships with longer-range 76mm guns has already become real. If Japan fails to watch and react to each small Chinese step and take counteractions, it may find it too late to take action in a contingency. The Japanese government should inform the public of such changes in China’s posture and sound the alarm.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.