Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Hideo Tamura

【#1228】Trump Won’t Give Up His Role as Ukraine Peacemaker

Hideo Tamura ／ 2025.03.05 (Wed)


March 3, 2025

　
U.S. President Donald Trump’s bitter clash with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky this weekend has led to speculation that Trump will abandon Ukraine. But it is too early to conclude so.

Trump invited Zelensky to the White House for the purpose of signing a deal to share interests of Ukrainian mineral resources. Although the signing was shelved due to the breakdown of their talks, Trump before the meeting said that Ukrainian mineral resources could be used for artificial intelligence and military weapons. A ceremony to sign the deal would be “somewhat of an exciting moment,” he said. Trump had already signed an executive order aiming at securing America’s global AI dominance.

Focusing on mineral resources

Ukraine is rich in rare earths, which are indispensable for semiconductors for AI and high-tech weapons, as well as rare metals such as lithium and titanium. Ukrainian titanium deposits are said to be able to support U.S. demand for 40 years. Trump is also proceeding with economic development talks, in parallel with his Ukraine peace efforts, with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which may be even richer with critical mineral resources than Ukraine. Trump also looks to the Danish territory of Greenland, which is considered a treasure trove of critical mineral resources.

The United States, as the hegemon, has overwhelming share of global market for semiconductors for AI and other applications, and for weapons such as fighter jets and missiles. But it has an Achilles’ heel: China has an overwhelming share of global rare earth and metal production. It monopolizes supply chains for rare earths and metals, threatens Western companies with export controls on such critical minerals, and force them to provide advanced technologies. While strictly controlling its rare earth industry, China’s Xi Jinping government subjected gallium, graphite, and antimony to export licensing in 2023 and 2024.

In exchange for promises of infrastructure investment, the Xi government has brought resource-rich countries into its Belt and Road Initiative designed to establish China’s economic sphere of influence. Ironically, the U.S.-led globalism for free cross-border movement of goods, people, and money has encouraged the expansion of China, an authoritarian dictatorship. While setting aside the ideals of freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights, Trump has brought deals that prioritize American interests into his foreign policy. This has raised concerns that the postwar international order will lose substance. China, however, is not a soft opponent.

Trump needs an early end to the war

Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden condemned China’s “economic coercion” in a joint statement of the Group of Seven leaders, but Xi has ignored the condemnation. Under the banner of “America First,” Trump not only prepares additional tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, but also hurries to secure critical mineral resources in Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, Trump needs an early end to the Ukraine war. There is no way he will give up on his peace efforts.

Hideo Tamura is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a senior correspondent for the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.