Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
Behind U.S.-Russia negotiations to explore an end to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, China is moving to take the lead in great power diplomacy. While supporting a U.S.-Russia summit without Ukraine, China is taking advantage of strained U.S.-Europe relations to get closer to Europe. Looming great power deals that exclude one of the warring parties hide a dangerous trap that could lead to the redivision of spheres of influence that China and Russia are secretly trying to achieve.

Trump having a secret understanding with Xi

During U.S. presidential campaigns last year, Donald Trump pledged to resolve the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. In order to deliver on this grandiose promise, Trump has asked China, supposed as the biggest adversary of the United States, to help Russia come to the negotiating table. He places expectations on the influence of China that has supported Russia’s continuation of the war through military and economic assistance.

Trump in defiance of convention invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the presidential inauguration. In his telephone talks with Xi just before the inauguration, Trump also requested China’s cooperation in a Ukraine peace process in exchange for discounting harsh tariffs on China. In an online address to a World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Trump openly called for China’s support. At press conferences and other events, Trump said he could understand that Russian President Vladimir Putin felt threatened by Ukraine’s potential accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. China’s cooperation in a Ukraine peace process and the sympathy for Russia’s claims are similar to what Chinese envoys have been advocating in cities around the world over the past three years.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Chinese officials have made proposals to the Trump administration on two main points: (1) a U.S.-Russia summit without Ukraine participation and (2) China’s support for peacekeeping operations after a Ukraine ceasefire, some of which have been accepted by the Trump team. If China were to become the guarantor of a Ukraine peace agreement and send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine, it would impress the world with China as a peacemaker.

Trump’s decision to exclude Ukraine from U.S.-Russia talks shows his weakness arising from his attempt to realize his campaign pledge to end the war of aggression. The easiest way to end the war may be to put pressure on Ukraine. Even if the U.S. is ultimately aiming to divide China and Russia, China may see an opportunity to divide the U.S. and Europe.

Dream of redividing spheres of influence

In order to justify Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, Putin for his part is seeking to revive the Yalta regime that marked its 80th anniversary in February. Towards the end of World War II, the U.S., British, and Soviet leaders met in Yalta on the Crimean Peninsula, agreeing to divide Europe into eastern and western spheres of influence. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia lost its dominance in Eastern Europe.

Putin laments that the West has distorted the spirit of Yalta and tried to expand NATO to cover Ukraine. China, while showing understanding of Putin’s story, attempts to use Russia as a companion in confronting the U.S.

If the U.S. gets on board with a deal that China and Russia are promoting, the world will return to an era in which the sovereignty of countries around the world are determined by the three major powers’ power and intentions. The biggest beneficiary from the deal will be China taking advantage of the division between the U.S. and Europe.

Hiroshi Yuasa is a Planning Committee member and a senior fellow at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. He is also a columnist for the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.