Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

Takashi Arimoto

【#1226】Why Can’t Japan Say “No” to Trump?

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2025.02.27 (Thu)


February 25, 2025

　
Why can’t the Japanese government explicitly say “no” to U.S. President Donald Trump? Trump said he was considering imposing new tariffs on cars imported into the United States, indicating the rate would be around 25%. If such tariffs are imposed, their impact on Japan, which exports many cars to the U.S., will be serious. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto plans to visit the U.S. soon to ask the U.S. government to exempt Japan from tariffs on automobiles as well as steel and aluminum products, but merely “asking” will not be enough.

At a press conference on February 18, Muto, explaining Japan’s next policy, only said, “We would like to respond appropriately in light of the importance of the automobile industry.” Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya also only “raised” the issue of automobile tariffs during his brief discussion with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich, Germany, on February 15.

Violation of Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement

Japan does not impose tariffs on cars imported from abroad. However, Trump had believed the reason why American cars did not sell in Japan was that Japan did not accept American cars. Then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe repeatedly explained Trump no tariffs were levied on car imports in Japan. In a joint statement after their meeting to finalize the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement in September 2019, they said, “While faithfully implementing [the agreement], both nations will refrain from taking measures against the spirit of [the agreement].” Abe emphasized, “I clearly confirmed to President Trump that the intent of the joint statement was not to impose additional tariffs on Japanese automobiles and auto parts, and President Trump acknowledged this.”

If Trump imposes additional tariffs on cars, it would be a violation of the trade agreement. “If the U.S. unilaterally raises auto tariffs, Japan should press the U.S. to scrap the agreement itself,” said a former senior Japanese government official who was involved in negotiations on the agreement. “How would American farmers react who have benefited from the agreement?”

At a press conference on February 21, Ken Kobayashi, chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, asked the Japanese government to make clear its opposition to the tariffs and to negotiate with the U.S. He is probably right. It is strange that there has been no outcry from within the government or the ruling parties that Japan should consider scrapping the trade agreement.

Ishiba should directly negotiate with Trump

“I got the impression that we can have a very calm and deliberate discussion from now on,” said Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on an NHK TV program on February 9, two days after his first meeting with Trump. “I think I have a chemistry with him.” In the September 2018 meeting with Abe, Trump said, “I couldn’t impose tariffs on automobiles because of friendship with Shinzo.” If Ishiba is confident that they have a chemistry, why doesn’t he call Trump right now and have direct negotiations.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.