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Kiyofumi Iwata

【#1225】Japan Should Convince Trump of Need to Strengthen Alliance

Kiyofumi Iwata ／ 2025.02.27 (Thu)


February 25, 2025

　
Three years have passed since the start of the war in Ukraine. With no end in sight to the war, negotiations towards a ceasefire began one month after U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. According to Fox News on February 19, the Trump administration is trying to move forward with ceasefire negotiations under a three-phase plan. First, a ceasefire will be declared on April 20 to stop fighting. In the second phase, Ukraine will be led to hold a presidential election as Russian President Vladimir Putin wishes. Finally, the plan is to have a peace agreement signed, although the timing is unclear.

So far, it has been believed that a ceasefire would take long to be achieved. If this three-phase plan is true, the fighting may cease for the time being. However, challenges remain for Ukraine and Russia to reach a subsequent peace agreement.

Astonishing disregard for postwar order

For instance, will the ceasefire line be the frontline on which the current fighting is taking place, or will it be pushed westward to the four eastern and southern Ukrainian region borders as Russia wishes? Will Ukraine rely on the local presence of British, French and other forces to guarantee its postwar security on which Ukraine insists, or will Russia be deterred by automatically making Ukraine a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the event of another Russian invasion in the future? Will Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agree to hold a presidential election as demanded by Russia? These are some of major questions to be resolved.

There is no need for Putin to be in a hurry to conclude negotiations when the current frontline situation is favorable to Russia and when Russia is believed to have capacity to sustain the war for 12 to 18 more months. On the contrary, Trump is impatient to achieve an early ceasefire that he advocated throughout the U.S. presidential campaigns. He will pressure Zelensky into making peace.

The Trump administration’s stance toward a ceasefire over the past month has shocked not only Ukraine, but also Europe and the world. Trump has shaken hands with aggressor Putin to allow the status quo to be changed by force, disregarding the international order that has lasted for 80 years since the end of World War II. Furthermore, Trump betrays the credibility of the NATO that has been said to be the strongest alliance, signaling the beginning of the division between the United States and Europe. Even if Trump had a strategy of joining hands with Russia to counter China, the only competitor for the U.S., he should not have taken such stance as the leader of the democratic camp.

Urgently required to revise Japan’s National Security Strategy

Facing the reality that Trump prioritizes U.S. interests over the value of rule by law, and the current state of close solidarity among China, Russia, and North Korea, which has been revealed through the Ukraine war, Japan should immediately proceed to revise its National Security Strategy. In doing so, it is essential for Japan to have the wisdom and efforts to convince Trump that strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance is in the interests of the U.S.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.