Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, which is in charge of the invasion of Taiwan, announced that it conducted joint exercises on April 1-2 focusing on naval blockade and live firing at mock targets. The live firing exercise was named “Strait Thunder-2025A.” The joint exercises at the start of the current training year in early April suggest that the PLA is steadily preparing to be able to invade Taiwan in 2027 as instructed by President Xi Jinping. The following four points are of interest regarding the exercises.

Four points of interest in the exercises

The first is an aircraft carrier’s participation in a naval blockade mission.

On April 1-2, five ships including the aircraft carrier Shandong operated off the eastern coast of Taiwan. A change from last October’s “Joint Sword 2024B” naval blockade drills was the addition of a “three-dimensional blockade” as a priority verification item for the aircraft carrier. It is possible that the carrier was given the three-dimensional naval blockade mission covering the sea and air, and that specific training was conducted to implement the blockade in cooperation with other units.

The second is a simulated attack on energy infrastructure by multiple-rocket launchers.

On April 2, a long-range multiple rocket unit of the PLA Army fired live fire at a target that resembled a liquefied natural gas (LNG) unloading base in Yongan, Taiwan. Taiwan depends on LNG for more than 40% of its power generation and has less than two weeks’ worth of LNG stockpile. The exercise might have threatened the Taiwanese people that naval blockades and attacks on energy infrastructure would disrupt the public life.

The third is the use of air-to-ship hypersonic ballistic missiles.

On April 1, a departing H-6K bomber was confirmed armed with YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles. It is believed that the bomber trained to interdict the approach of U.S. warships. The first ever video of the YJ-21’s launch from the H-6K was released in May last year. This is the first time that the YJ-21 was seen attached to a bomber during joint exercises, indicating progress is being made in bringing new equipment to the PLA.

The fourth is deepened cooperation with maritime militias.

The PLA Navy conducted training with three vessels believed manned by Chinese maritime militias on a location 250 kilometers from Hualien Port on the east coast of Taiwan on April 1-2, according to Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration. This location was about 90 kilometers south of Ishigaki Island in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture. The training may have involved placing the suspected militia vessels between naval and China Coast Guard ships and using them to monitor naval blockade, or deploying maritime militias around Japan for operations in a gray zone that is neither wartime nor peacetime.

Alarming transition from training to war

Chinese military exercises and gray-zone operations around Taiwan are likely to become more normal, making signs of China’s invasion of Taiwan unclear. Japan will be required to make a quick decision on and response to a transition from training to war. As China’s PLA, coast guard, and militias have deepened their cooperation as seen in the latest exercises, Japan will also be required to make accurate response to cooperation between China’s maritime militias and coast guard around the Senkaku Islands. Given that progress in China’s deployment of new equipment has improved its capabilities to make precision strikes on infrastructure and anti-access capabilities to keep U.S. forces away from Taiwan, Japan will have to make urgent efforts to strengthen air defense capabilities for key domestic infrastructure and develop counterstrike capabilities.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.