Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　　The United States will withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan within this year, ending its war footing that has continued for 13 years since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. This will shift the U.S. defense policy focus from present wars to future challenges. But the Obama administration has yet to determine what would be the largest future security challenge. On March 4, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review that features all-round descriptions and fails to satisfy Japan and other Asian countries facing China's military threats.

QDR nominally gives priority to Asia
　　　　　　The latest QDR has some descriptions expressing concerns over China's military rise. But they are limited to traditional moderate complaints saying that China's military modernization lacks transparency, that China has adopted the so-called A2/AD (Anti-Access and Area Denial) strategy to impede U.S. forces' deployment in emergency situations and that China is enhancing cyber and space warfare capabilities.
　　　　　　The previous QDR, which was issued in 2010 as the first one for the Obama administration, attracted attention from military experts by coming up with the so-called “air-sea battle” concept to integrally operate the Air Force and Navy to counter China's and others’ A2/AD strategy. But the latest QDR includes no such initiative.
　　　　　　The latest QDR reaffirms the Obama administration's return-to-Asia policy called a “rebalance” to the Asia-Pacific region. We can welcome the reaffirmation at a time when doubts exist about the Obama administration's priority given to Asia. But what the QDR names as a threat in the region is North Korea developing nuclear missiles, rather than China that has increased its military provocations against its neighbors including Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. This failure to mention China as a threat is hard to understand.

Remarkable gap between Chinese and U.S. momentums
　　　　　　We may interpret the QDR as indicating that while the top leaders of the Obama administration are moving to build a “new model of major power relations” with China giving priority to bilateral cooperation, the Pentagon, which has been traditionally cautious against China, has attempted to demonstrate its resistance to or its assertion against the move by including concerns over the Chinese military buildup into the QDR.
　　　　　　As warned by the QDR, however, the United States will have to reduce its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region if defense outlays are cut substantially under a budget sequestration that could come on a budget dispute between the Democratic Obama administration and Congress including the Republican-controlled House.
　　　　　　While the United States was limping along, China announced an annual defense budget calling for a 12.2% jump in military spending at the National People's Congress when the legislature's annual session started on March 5. Moreover, in his government work report, Premier Li Kegiang vowed to develop China into a strong sea power.
　　　　　　China that does not hesitate to use military force to expand its territory and interests has a clearly greater momentum than the United States that has been exhausted by wars and looking inward. None other than U.S. allies or friends should make up for any decline in the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. I would argue that the United States cannot afford to bash Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of its major ally in Asia, Japan.

Yasushi Tomiyama is Senior Fellow and Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.