Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

Tadae Takubo

【#292】Middle East to See Upheaval Depending on U.S.

Tadae Takubo ／ 2015.04.01 (Wed)


March 30, 2015

　　　　　Even though few people in Japan may agree, it was very big news that Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen at the mouth of the strategically important Red Sea with support from 11 other Arab League countries. The Yemeni target for Saudi Arabia dominated by Sunni Muslims is the Shiite Houthi rebel group backed by Iran. A proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia has broken out in the Middle East.

Proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia
　　　　　Iran is now on the brink of whether or not to reach broad agreement with the U.S.-led five permanent United Nations Security Council members and Germany on the nuclear development program by the deadline of March 31. Meanwhile, Iran has sent the Quds Force, a division of the Revolutionary Guards for extraterritorial operations, to Iraq to train and command Shiite rebels. Commanding the special force is Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who makes frequent appearrnces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran has put Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government forces and Lebanon's Hezbollah rebels under its control. The Houthi force owns even military aircraft and has ousted pro-American Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi from the capital city of Sanaa.
　　　　　Twenty-eight weekly flights fly between a Houthi-occupied airport in Sanaa and the Iranian capital of Tehran. Iran's Mahan Airlines is among carriers running Sanaa-Tehran flights, indicating that Iran has a close relationship with the Houthi force. Scud missiles, which had been owned by Yemeni forces, now cover most of major Saudi cities including the Holy City of Mecca some 560 kilometers from Sanaa, plunging Saudi Arabia into a national crisis.
　
U.S. response attracting global attention
　　　　　The biggest matter of concern is what attitude the United State would demonstrate to the world after serving as the keeper of international order. While asserting the United States has no willingness to be the policeman of the world, President Barack Obama has made a commitment to fight against terrorism. Particularly, Obama last year cited his drone program in Yemen as a successful model of U.S. anti-terrorism strategy. Nevertheless, U.S. special forces withdrew from a base in southern Yemen on March 10 in the face of attacks by the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Fearing threats from Houthi rebels, the U.S. ambassador to Yemen has moved the U.S. embassy from Sanaa to the Saudi port city of Jidda. While the United States is unlikely to have succumbed to terrorism, the world has been watching every U.S. action.
　　　　　Will the United States support Iran amid the Shiite-Sunni conflict or not from a broader perspective? The Obama administration is making a key decision that can influence the future of the Middle East.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.