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Tadae Takubo

【#350(Special)】Emerging Pattern of Japan-U.S.-Taiwan vs. China

Tadae Takubo ／ 2016.01.20 (Wed)


January 18, 2016

　　　　　When I reviewed Japanese media reports after returning home on the night of January 17 from Taiwan I visited from January 12, I found an excellent front-page short analysis titled “Growing Taiwanese Consciousness,” by the Taipei bureau chief of the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. The consciousness may be understood only by those who saw Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen deliver an address before a large crowd after winning in the January 16 Taiwanese presidential election. Tsai reiterated the word of “national identity.” If you hear a large crowd chanting “we are Taiwanese,” “Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan” and “Fight,” you may understand how strong the Taiwanese consciousness is.

Urging solidarity of Taiwanese
　　　　　Former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui once used the phrase of “unhappiness with having been born as Taiwanese” in his talks with Japanese writer Ryotaro Shiba. The world of “identity” may represent the ardor of now-defunct Ng Chiau-tong, Zhou Ying-ming and others who sought for the Taiwanese independence at their own peril against the crackdown by the Chiang Kai-shek government.
　　　　　Taiwanese people may be divided into mainlander Taiwanese and native Taiwanese. However, such division may be too simple and dangerous. If Taiwanese become split and plunge into a bloody struggle, a certain country will surely take advantage of such event. This is the reason Tsai called for the solidarity among Taiwanese. While every Japanese newspaper describes the Democratic Progressive Party as independence-leaning, the word of identity implicates a more complicated meaning.
　　　　　In the same address, Tsai said she had talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on China taking provocative actions in the South China Sea. Remember Abe’s statement on August 14 to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. The statement cited Taiwan along with countries, treating Taiwan as a sovereign state openly. Furthermore, Abe placed Taiwan ahead of China in the statement. The Tsai address and the Abe statement indicate that a balance of power will emerge in a manner for Japan, the United States and Taiwan to counter China.

Returning to “maintenance of status quo”
　　　　　The inauguration of President Tsai will undoubtedly come as a great shock to China. While what China would do is unknown, the path that Taiwan should take has become clear. First, Taiwan will have to increase defense spending that the Kuomintang Nationalist Party has failed to enhance. No country can be allowed to expect that it may be defended by the United States even when it has no intent to defend itself. Second, Taiwan should reduce its economic dependence on China. Taiwan may take advantage of its participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement to do so. The problem is that U.S. President Barak Obama has not secured domestic consent for the TPP yet. Japan-Taiwan economic relations will be enhanced almost naturally. The Taiwanese presidential election has induced a move for Taiwan to return to the “maintenance of the status quo” that China has endangered.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.