Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　Following my U.S. visit in late January, I participated in an international conference in Britain late February. Through these visits, I felt the tidal shift of international community having been growing tougher against China. Specifically, everyone now shrugs off China’s propaganda based on its war of words, beginning to recognize that what Chinese leaders say deviate far from what they have done. As a general trend, China has been exacerbating its international isolation. China’s actions to expand its territory have faced a growing reaction from the international community.

Multi-layered regional cooperation
　　　　　In the United States where primaries are going on ahead of November’s presidential election, both Democratic and Republican frontrunners have expressed opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, indicating these candidates are unreliable in that they are easily influenced by domestic public opinion instead of adopting policies appropriate for a super power or a global leader.
　　　　　Nevertheless, the U.S. military has deployed the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis for warning and surveillance mission in the South China Sea. In the Indo-Pacific region, three trilateral security relationships are being enhanced. The first is Japan-U.S.-Australia, followed by Japan-U.S.-India. Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, announced the United States, India and Japan would conduct their Malabar joint naval exercises this year in the Philippine Sea close to the South China Sea that China has been militarizing. The third security relationship is Japan-U.S.-South Korea that is being revitalized after North Korea’s latest nuclear test and ballistic missile launch.
　　　　　The United States has recently hosted a summit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to enhance U.S.-ASEAN relations, placing expectations on Japan’s assistance in capacity building in ASEAN countries.
　　　　　Tsai Ingwen, who is set to assume the Taiwanese presidency in May, reportedly plans to increase defense spending from a little over 2% of gross domestic product to around 3%. If Japan enacts a Japanese version of the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act that stipulates the relationship with Taiwan, the Japan-U.S.-Taiwan trilateral relationship will also be enhanced.
　　　　　In this way, Japan is involved in many multilateral collaborations in the region and has growing potential to become a cornerstone for Indo-Pacific security.

Don’t jeopardize reliability of Japan-U.S. alliance
　　　　　Japan will have to exercise its collective self-defense rights to enhance every multilateral security relation. The period when Japan has been complacent with a peaceful sleep is passing away. Is it appropriate for Japan to limit its defense spending to 1% of GDP in the current severe security environment?
　　　　　Furthermore, Japan’s addition of offensive capabilities to its defense forces would help deter war more effectively even with similar defense budget. In order to build security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan may have to amend its Constitution to break the spell of “exclusively defensive” posture.
　　　　　Japan today cannot afford to take populist policies over U.S. base relocation plan on Okinawa and other issues toward the soon-to-come House of Councilors election, sacrificing the reliability of the Japan-U.S. alliance.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.