Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　The world view or strategic view of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is still unknown. If he holds fast to his parochial doctrine of “America First” as promised during campaigns, East Asia will proceed with de-Americanization and destabilize. Any decline in the presence of the United States in the region will encourage China to enhance its regional hegemony.
　　　　　Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s quick response may play a role in preventing the United States from tilting toward isolationism. At their meeting on November 17 in New York, Abe and Trump will explore compromise while presenting the list of two countries’ national interests in both security and economic areas. This approach may meet Trump’s style of viewing everything from the viewpoint of deals.

U.S. power indispensable to world stability
　　　　　The list of Trump policies lacks consistency as his sweeping rhetoric has been dominant. After Trump made remarks leaving Japan and South Korea to go nuclear, a Trump campaign spokesman modified his stance on the matter: "Mr. Trump has indicated that countries need to defend themselves and that nuclear weapons are an option that they have, but not that he supports them having those weapons." In telephone talks with Abe, Trump suddenly vowed to further enhance the special relationship between Japan and the United States. Given that the presidency could change a person in the position, real-estate mogul Trump may change his stance depending on deals.
　　　　　At the meeting with Trump, Abe will emphasize that U.S. power is still required to stabilize the international community. The Japanese leader will also invite Trump’s attention politely that the Japan-U.S. alliance is indispensable for the United States to demonstrate its power and that unless the United States try to share interests with countries facing the South and East China Seas, China could divide these countries from the United States.
　　　　　In an article on Foreign Policy magazine, two policy advisers to Trump criticized current President Barack Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” policy as “talking loudly but carrying a small stick.” They argued that a Trump administration would counter China’s pressure on other Asian countries. In this regard, however, they said they would negotiate to have allies pay more for that purpose.
　　　　　The Japanese government pays about 75% of costs for stationing U.S. forces in Japan. If Japan increases the share further, U.S. forces may be seen as mercenaries employed by Japan. If U.S. forces in Japan retreat to Hawaii or the U.S. mainland due to dissatisfaction with the Japanese cost share, the United States will have to pay far higher costs for defending its interests in the Western Pacific. Based on these points, Prime Minister Abe should tell Trump that Japan-U.S. alliance must improve reciprocity and the amendment of Japan’s constitution may become necessary.

TTP failure could lead to China’s economic hegemony
　　　　　Trump seemingly does not want to sacrifice economic interests for security. Prime Minister Abe must convince Trump that the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement meets U.S. interests. Abe also must tell Trump frankly that if the United States fails to ratify the TPP, another Asian multilateral economic framework named Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may become more realistic.
　　　　　The TPP excludes China, while the RCEP excludes the United States. If the RCEP takes a lead over the TPP, the United States may have to lose Asia-Pacific economic hegemony to China. Is it a good deal for Trump?

Hiroshi Yuasa is Columnist for the Sankei Shimbun and Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.