Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　A frigate of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy intruded into the contiguous zone (up to 12 nautical miles beyond territorial waters) around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on the early morning of June 9 after three Russian naval ships intruded there.
　　　　　In the law on territorial waters and contiguous zones that China enacted in 1992, Paragraph 2 of Article 2 defines the Senkaku Islands as Chinese territory. Furthermore, Article 13 provides that the People’s Republic of China has authority to enforce jurisdiction in contiguous zones. According to the Chinese law and logic, therefore, China should have protested the Russian intrusion into the contiguous zone of the Senkaku Islands that the China claims as its territory.
　　　　　However, no such protest was seen in a statement issued by the Chinese Defense Ministry on June 9. What was the objective of the Chinese intrusion into the zone?

China close to de facto control of islands
　　　　　When two ships of the then China Marine Surveillance (now China Coast Guard) circled in territorial waters around Uotsuri Island of the Senkakus for about nine and half hours on December 8, 2008, Japanese newspapers reported the event as their top news. Despite the fact that Chinese law enforcement ships intruded into territorial waters around the Senkakus more than 150 times by early this month, Japanese newspapers have almost discontinued to report such intrusions.
　　　　　Since late last year, China has also sent coast guard ship armed with cannons to territorial waters around the Senkakus. Even though such incident made big news initially, it is now occurring regularly. A Chinese naval ship intruded into the contiguous zone of the Senkakus this time and will intrude into territorial waters next. China has been escalating its activities as if it slowly slices salami in a bid to create a fait accompli.
　　　　　In a typical process to seize islands in such a place as the South China Sea, China claimed them as its territory in the first step (it was in 1971 for the Senkakus), sent fishing boats to territorial waters around the islands in the second step (in 1978 for the Senkakus), dispatched law enforcement ships to the territorial waters in the third stage (in 2008 for the Senkakus), sent naval ships to the territorial waters in the fourth stage and established de facto control on the target islands in the fifth stage.
　　　　　A Chinese naval frigate’s intrusion into the contiguous zone of the Senkakus indicates that China has come up to one step before sending war ships to territorial waters and establishing de facto control on the islands.

China to reach for Okinawa next
　　　　　On May 8, 2013, the People’s Daily, the organ of the Chinese Communist Party, carried an expert’s essay insisting territorial rights to Okinawa were still pending. After establishing de facto control on the Senkakus, China will surely reach for Okinawa.
　　　　　Here, I would like to make some questions.
　　　　　To Okinawans calling for removing all U.S. military bases from Okinawa because of incidents or accidents caused by U.S. civilian employees or military personnel, my question is: “Can you prevent China’s aggression into Okinawa without U.S. military deterrence?” I would add, “Under the single-party dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party, you will not be allowed even to organize demonstrations freely as you do today.”
　　　　　To political parties that call for abolishing national security laws for strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and oppose a constitutional amendment for giving a due status to the Self-Defense Forces, my question is: “Can Article 9 of the Constitution block China’s aggression?”

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.