Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Takashi Arimoto

【#1214】Prime Minister Ishiba Should Learn from Abe

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2025.01.14 (Tue)


January 14, 2025

　
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is making arrangements to visit the United States for his first meeting with new U.S. President Donald Trump in the first half of February. When Ishiba sought to meet Trump soon after his victory in November, I opposed his possible visit in my “Speaking Out” essay, insisting that he should not have a hasty meeting with Trump. However, as Trump is the person who can reverse President Joe Biden’s order for banning Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel, it would be worthy for Ishiba to try to persuade Trump. In doing so, Ishiba should refer to the approach by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Loathing comparison

According to senior Japanese government officials, Ishiba looks blatantly uncomfortable when Abe’s name is mentioned at briefings on Japan-U.S. relations. Ishiba, who was twice defeated by Abe in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leader election, may be loath to be compared with Abe. He would like to take a different approach than Abe’s “golf diplomacy.” It is natural that different leaders have different styles. However, Ishiba should think twice if Trump would accept well-reasoned arguments that Ishiba prefers.

At a press conference on January 6, Ishiba criticized Biden’s order for a ban on Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel, saying that he wanted a clear explanation why there were national security concerns about the acquisition. Ishiba is right. But I wonder if Ishiba can say so to Trump at a face-to-face meeting.

Ability to detect danger

A government official recalls Abe’s excellent ability to detect danger with regard to his relationship with Trump. He cites bilateral telephone talks on February 14, 2018, as an example.

In the talks, Abe referred to the February 4 mayoral election in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, where an incumbent mayor opposing the relocation of the U.S. Futenma Marine Corps Air Station to Henoko in Nago was defeated by a challenger and told Trump that a victory for Henoko was welcome. Trump then asked, “Shinzo, what is Henoko?” Abe quickly changed the subject.

The official said: “Even if Abe explained the details of the relocation, Trump could have said, ‘If there is so much opposition, do we need U.S. forces to be there?’ Abe sensed that danger and responded flexibly. It was his feature.”

Ishiba had better read all documents on Abe-Trump talk and learn from them.

EU has learned

According to another government official, European Union countries often asked why Abe could build a good relationship with Trump. The EU has learned the reason and brought Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and others who have good chemistry with Trump among the 27 EU leaders to the fore. While on the contrary, only Ishiba can be a counterpart of Trump at present in Japan. For that reason, Ishiba should not stick to his past rivalry with Abe.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.