Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
It is delightful that Lai Chingte of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, who is pro-American and pro-Japanese and distances himself from China, won the presidential election there on January 13. As senior U.S. officials express a sense of crisis that we have to confront a militarily and economically powerful China for the next 10 years, it is of great significance for Japan and the United States that Taiwan will be led by a person who shares values with the two countries.

Absence of a framework for official dialogue

The Japanese government issued a statement in the name of Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, congratulating Lai on his election and vowing to further deepen cooperation and exchanges between Japan and Taiwan. In the absence of diplomatic relations, however, there is no framework for official dialogue between their governments.

During his time as mayor of Tainan, Lai visited Kanazawa, Kumamoto, Sendai, and other parts of Japan to accumulate exchanges with Japan. In July 2022 when he was vice president, Lai attended the funeral of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as one of Abe’s friends. While the Fumio Kishida administration’s decision to accept Lai’s visit for the funeral was appropriate, then Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi (now chief cabinet secretary), when asked about his visit at a press conference, refrained from even mentioning Lai’s name and referred to him only as “the person you mentioned.” Hayashi, who had served as chairman of the suprapartisan Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship League, one of the seven groups officially recognized by Beijing as friendly organizations, until just before his appointment as foreign minister, was criticized for being fearful of offending China.

No matter how much Hayashi tries to accommodate China, China is increasing military pressure on Taiwan by frequently flying military aircraft over the Taiwan Strait. Japan also is urgently required to consider how to proceed with the evacuation of Japanese nationals from Taiwan and the acceptance of refugees in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

Start with Japan-Taiwan military exchanges

In his speech at an international forum in Taipei last August, Taro Aso, vice president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and a former prime minister, emphasized that Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S. being “prepared to fight” would serve as a regional deterrent, bearing in mind former Prime Minister Abe’s remark that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency and a Japan-U.S. alliance contingency.” Aso also told reporters in Washington on January 10 during his U.S. visit: “It is very likely that the Japanese government will judge [a Taiwan contingency] is a situation that threatens Japan’s existence,” indicating his recognition that the Japanese government is likely to invoke the right of collective self-defense if China invades Taiwan.

While Aso’s recognition is correct, Japan can never be prepared to fight if the government leadership hesitates to have dialogue with Taiwan. The government should strengthen its cooperation with Taiwan on the assumption of a Taiwan contingency, starting with the exchange between the Taiwan military and the Self-Defense Forces, to increase deterrence against China.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and publisher of Monthly Magazine SEIRON at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.