Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
On November 30, the Chinese government resumed short-term visa exemption for Japan. The Japanese government welcomed the move as indicating China’s positive stance toward improving relations with Japan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, in his policy speech on November 29, boasted that it was his achievement at his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November. Is that really the case?

No mention of visa exemption in Japanese briefing

In a briefing on the November 15 meeting between Ishiba and Xi in Peru, Japanese government officials made no mention of the visa exemption. Ishiba was then quoted by these officials as having spoken to Xi about concerns over growing Chinese military activities and the killing of a Japanese elementary school boy in Shenzhen, as well as Japan’s requests for China to quickly lift a ban on aquatic products from Japan, resume beef imports from Japan, and expand polished rice imports from Japan.

A few days after the meeting, however, Beijing seems to have suddenly sounded Tokyo out on the announcement of the short-term visa exemption. Of course, Tokyo could welcome the announcement in consideration of the business community’s longstanding request for the resumption. The Japanese government then seems to have decided to make the resumption one of achievements at the Ishiba-Xi meeting. At a time when Ishiba came under fire for his unfavorable demeanor during his Latin American tour including the meeting with Xi, China’s visa exemption resumption might have been adopted as one of Ishiba’s few diplomatic achievements during the tour.

Why did China make such diplomatic initiative to Japan? Japanese diplomatic officials have reportedly explained that China’s aim is to swiftly improve relations with Japan in consideration of China’s sluggish economy and the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States. At first glance, the explanation looks plausible, but is it the case?

Japan has a bad habit of viewing diplomacy only from its own point of view. China ended its zero-COVID-19 policy of containing the pandemic in January 2023 and has gradually expanded the number of countries subject to visa exemption since July 2023. After announcing the exemption for nine countries including South Korea on November 1 this year, China on November 22 announced it for nine other countries that included Bulgaria as well as Japan.

These series of moves indicate China has not necessarily placed importance on Japan. And, given that they began before the November 5 U.S. presidential election, they may have nothing to do with Trump’s reelection.

China aims at semiconductor engineers

Japan should not be overly pleased to see China’s visa exemption. In particular, we should be careful because China is viewed as interested in semiconductor engineers as far as visa exemption for Japan and South Korea is concerned.

China attempts to dominate the global semiconductor market, as indicated by massive investment in semiconductor that is expected to lead to overproduction. In particular, China has placed robust orders for Japanese equipment for producing power semiconductors that are indispensable for such products as power-saving electric vehicles (EVs). Installation and maintenance of such equipment requires engineers from the manufacturer, and until now, a short-term visa was required to travel to and from China.

It is generally desirable for Japan’s business with China to flourish. In the semiconductor field where China is strategically moving, however, Japanese companies are required to take a cautious approach.

Moreover, the short-term visa exemption alone cannot pave the way for Japanese to visit China at ease. A senior Japanese business executive detained in March 2023 was indicted on espionage charges. At least 17 Japanese nationals have been detained in China on unknown charges. In the current circumstances in which Japanese business persons could be detained anytime, many Japanese companies are refraining from sending employees to China for business trips. Only when a Japanese leader resolves such essential issue through Japan-China summit talks, the leader may be qualified to boast of the resolution as a diplomatic achievement.

Masahiko Hosokawa is a professor at Meisei University and a former director-general of the Trade Control Department at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. He is also a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.