Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　Japan's national security bills have passed the House of Representatives and are well expected to be enacted by the Diet during its current session. Parliamentary discussions on the bills have focused on whether the bills are unconstitutional or constitutional and whether Self-Defense Forces troops might be exposed to greater dangers. Some lawmakers have promoted demagogy campaigns branding those bills as representing war legislation or the future revival of draft system. Few discussions have been made from strategic viewpoints based on long-term prospects.

Security environment over next 10 to 20 years
　　　　　Some of parliamentary discussions on the bills have been based on strategic thinking related to the current China's threats in the South and East China Seas. But few discussions covered Japan's strategic environment over the next 10 to 20 years.
　　　　　While China posted double-digit annual growth in defense spending for every year since 1989, excluding only 2010, Japan had negative growth of defense spending for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. At present, China spends some three times more on defense than Japan, shifting the conventional Japan-China military balance more favorable for China. If the present trends continue, China's defense spending would be expected to 10 times as much as Japan's by 2030.
　　　　　China has faithfully followed the Art of War by ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu recommending, “When five times his strength, attack him.” Given that China with its military strength is insulting weaker countries such as the Philippines or Vietnam in the South China Sea, it is clear that China will take an offensive action against Japan in the future.
　　　　　Expanding military capabilities to keep pace with the Chinese cannot be a realistic choice for Japan plagued with accumulated government debt as a percentage of gross domestic products larger than Greece's and with persistently rising social security spending. Therefore, the only solution for Japan is enhancing its alliance with the United States.

How to prevent Japan-U.S. alliance from breaking up
　　　　　What would happen if the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Aegis destroyers capable of detecting and intercepting ballistic missiles going in the direction of Hawaii or Guam did not intercept such missiles or MSDF ships capable of detecting and attacking submarines sinking U.S. ships in joint operations with the MSDF did nothing while remaining on the sidelines?
　　　　　Through my work in the United States over some 10 years, I predict that such event would lead the Japan-U.S. alliance to break up because a majority of Americans believe that Japan as a faithful U.S. ally would fight in cooperation with the United States in emergency. In such scenario, Japan alone will have to face China as a military superpower.
　　　　　I got a Ph.D. from a U.S. graduate school with a doctor thesis on alliances. My conclusion was: “An alliance is alive based on a strict give and take relationship. In history, alliances broke up mostly because alliance members failed to make sufficient contributions. Particularly in case of the Japan-U.S. alliance, Japan’s exercise of the right to collective self-defense is indispensable.”
　　　　　We must recall a strategic way of thinking that alliances can be maintained only through alliance members’ continuous contributions.

Fumio Ota is a JINF Planning Committee Member and retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.