Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　No matter how one looks at it, the latest summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin came at the worst timing for Japan. A joint press statement after the meeting made no reference to “territory” or “border” related to Japan’s claim to the four northern islands. If an agreement on Japan-Russia economic cooperation on these islands is listed as the largest achievement at the summit, President Putin may be victoriously laughing.

Abe’s attempt ended up in smoke
　　　　　Given that the Putin government is seen as exerting autocratic political power and seeking assistance because of economic downturn and that the United States was not necessarily negative about the summit, Abe might have seen the summit as coming on favorable terms. Actually, however, Putin is an expansionist who invaded Russia’s southern neighbor Georgia and annexed Crimea from its western neighbor Ukraine. Can this regime yield the four islands on Russia’s eastern edge to Japan? In the United States, pro-Russia Donald Trump won the presidency in November, reducing reason for Moscow to make concessions to Japan. Taking advantage of this situation, Putin before the summit asserted that there was no territorial problem, raising hurdles for resolving the dispute.
　　　　　On the day when Prime Minister Abe welcomed President Putin in his hometown of Nagato in Yamaguchi Prefecture, western Japan, the Syrian government with support from Russia took back Aleppo that had been a stronghold for Syrian rebels. For Putin who closely watched the main battleground involving the rise or fall of great powers, the degree of priority to diplomacy with Japan might have plunged. As a result, Putin seemed to be a triumphant general when he arrived at Yumoto Spa in Nagato city. Russia and Iran brought the battle over Aleppo to an apparent end to create a fait accompli before the Trump administration is inaugurated. Just before the development, even a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for humanitarian support for Aleppo failed on vetoes by Russia and China.
　　　　　Then, Abe’s attempt to have frank talks with Putin while dipping in a hot spring ended up in smoke. Putin, a wartime president of Russia having reemerged as a global power, made instructions one after another to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even during his stay in Japan. If matters of concern in the Middle East are resolved, he will only have to ponder how to extract Japan money.

A less urgent negotiator has a stronger hand
　　　　　As Abe and Putin started their second-day talks at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo, a report of the European Union’s decision to continue economic sanctions on Russia came. Japan turned its back on the EU decision by agreeing with Russia on economic cooperation worth 300 billion yen (about $2.6b). Japan cannot explain the cooperation as designed to serve its national interests regarding the territory since the press statement made no reference to the ownership of the four islands or the two countries’ traditional principle of resolving bilateral problems “based on all past documents and agreements.” The statement only included a vague agreement to start talks on the two countries’ joint economic activities on the four islands.
　　　　　The Russian economy, that has been deteriorating year by year, is still plagued with quadruple difficulty of the weak ruble, low oil prices, economic sanctions and growing war costs. While watching Putin’s expansionist policy, Japan can delay hasty economic assistance. A less urgent negotiator has a stronger hand.

Hiroshi Yuasa is a Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist for the Sankei Shimbun.