Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has decided to nominate Rex Tillerson, chief executive officer and chairman of oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp., as his secretary of state, completing a foreign policy and national security team for his administration to be inaugurated in January. As Trump vowed not to be bound by the “One China” principle, continuing to make provocative remarks that deviate from traditional U.S. policy framework, it is not clear if the new team could stably run the U.S. foreign policy.
　　　　　The lineup of the team strongly indicates that the United States might accept international relations led by Russia that has enhanced its attitude of challenging post-Cold War world order in recent years.

Tillerson known for close ties to Putin
　　　　　Tillerson, picked as secretary of state, has interacted with Russian President Vladimir Putin through oil development business for more than two decades. “He has had more interactive time with Vladimir Putin than probably any other American with the exception of Henry Kissinger,” said John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. Tillerson received the Order of Friendship from Putin in 2013 and raised public opposition to economic sanctions that the United States and Europe imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea in 2014.
　　　　　In a book he coauthored last July, retired Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, nominated as national security adviser for the incoming Trump administration, offered a unique worldview that Islamic radicals have joined hands with Russia, China, North Korea and others to wage a world war with the United States. At the same time, Flynn, a former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, advocated cooperation with Russia, noting that Russia, if awakened to the threats from Islamic radicals, could become a U.S. partner. This stance matches Trump’s assertion that the United States should work with Syria’s Assad regime and its supporter Russia to overthrow the Islamic State terrorist organization based in Syria.
　　　　　The Trump national security team also includes retired Marine Corps General James N. Mattis, nominated as defense secretary. The New York Times said, “General Mattis, like most military officers at the Pentagon, has a healthy skepticism for the Russian leader.” However, he apparently has a big difference from Trump who feels a sense of affinity with strongman president Putin. None knows how Mattis could continue to have a say in the incoming administration.

Conciliatory approach on Russia seen Europe as well
　　　　　Challenging the U.S.-led international order have been Russia taking advantage of military power to recover Soviet-era influences in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, China trying to turn artificial islands into military fortresses in the South China Sea, and radical Islamic organizations implementing terrorist attacks throughout the world. The incoming Trump administration is likely to take a conciliatory approach on Russia among them.
　　　　　The United States is not isolated on this point. Similar approaches are seen in Europe as well. For example, former French Premier Francois Fillon, who is set to run for next spring’s presidential election as a unified center-right candidate to clash with far-right Marine Le Pen, has called for lifting Western sanctions on Russia and cooperation with Russia in fighting against Islamic radicals.
　　　　　Given that the international situation is going in the favorable direction for Russia, President Putin apparently has little incentive to make major concession to Japan over their territorial row. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have no choice but to be perseverant.

Yasushi Tomiyama is Senior Fellow and Planning Committee Member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.