Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

Kunio Orita

【#1291】Lackluster Leadership Race Insults the Public

Kunio Orita ／ 2025.10.01 (Wed)


September 29, 2025

　
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s current leadership race remains lackluster. This is due to two main reasons. First, the five candidates have prioritized avoiding gaffes, choosing not to share their genuine views. Second, discussions on the most important issue, namely, Japan's national security, have been sluggish.

A friendly club

In last year's LDP leadership race, a leading candidate was defeated due to gaffes that highlighted his lack of qualifications to become prime minister. All candidates this year may have learned lessons from this episode. They refrain from discussing their signature policies or controversial issues, instead devoting themselves to safe campaigning. Afraid of making slips of the tongue, one candidate simply looks down and reads from their prepared scripts. They shy away from confrontation, stay sensitive to each other, and avoid criticizing or challenging one another’s views. The five candidates seem to resemble a friendly club.

Upon becoming the LDP leader and prime minister, any candidate may need to impose certain hardships on the public. If these LDP candidates believe they can change drastically after winning the election without addressing unpopular issues, they risk undermining democratic principles and showing disregard for the people.

Lacking a sense of crisis

Their discussions on national security are also extremely lackluster. “The international community is facing its greatest trial since World War II and entering a new era of crisis,” says the 2025 edition of the annual defense white paper. The statement reflects the most serious assessment of the situation since the first defense white paper was published in 1970.

The Ukraine war has demonstrated that no one can stop any war of aggression launched by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The United Nations has lost its authority and dysfunction has become the norm. Russia continues nuclear intimidation, bringing the nuclear threat back into stark reality. North Korea has completed an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach Washington and successfully tested a hypersonic missile that Japan's defense systems cannot intercept. The credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella has been fundamentally shaken. A Taiwan contingency is also looming. Yet none of the candidates appear to grasp the urgency of this perilous moment.

Clinging to the Japan-U.S. alliance without rethinking

All the LDP leadership candidates uniformly say that the Japan-U.S. alliance is the pillar of Japan’s security. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he is extremely reluctant to spend money or shed blood for U.S. allies. Trump also condemns that the Japan-U.S. alliance in which the United States defends Japan in exchange for Japan’s provision of bases for U.S. forces is unfair. The Japan-U.S. alliance is undergoing structural transformation, and the era when one could casually call it the pillar of Japan’s security has come to an end. An extension of the past does not guarantee peace or security for Japan. The next prime minister must provide prescriptions such as nuclear deterrence strategies and constitutional amendments.

We would like to see a new powerful LDP leader who is prepared and discerning to save Japan. We don't want a weak LDP leader who is afraid of making gaffes and shies away from speaking out about his or her signature policies. With such a lackluster leadership race, the LDP is likely to continue its decline.

Kunio Orita is a member of the JINF Planning Committee and a special professor at Reitaku University. He is a retired Lieutenant General of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.