Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
On June 7, a J-15 fighter jet launched from the Chinese Navy’s aircraft carrier Shandong made an unusual approach toward a P-3C patrol aircraft of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, which was monitoring the Chinese carrier in the Pacific. The fighter flew as close as approximately 45 meters horizontally and tailed it for about 40 minutes. On June 8, a J-15 repeated a dangerous flight by crossing about 900 meters in front of the path of the P-3C. The Japanese government conveyed its strong concerns to China through diplomatic and defense channels and demanded that any recurrence of such incident be prevented. However, the Chinese side countered that the Japanese patrol aircraft’s reconnaissance operation was the root cause of the risk, demanding Japan to stop such “dangerous act.”

At the time, another Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning crossed the Second Island Chain (linking Japan’s Ogasawara Islands, Guam, Saipan, and Palau) for the first time and advanced to the west of Minami-Torishima Island, the easternmost island of Japan. This was the first time that two Chinese aircraft carriers were deployed simultaneously in the western Pacific.

Chinese navy becoming a “blue water navy”

The Chinese Navy’s latest move has two meanings. The first is that it has transformed itself from a “brown water navy” with aircraft carriers operating only within the range of ground-based radar along the coast into a “blue water navy” that can sustain naval operations in the far seas. The second meaning is that it has acquired fleet air defense capabilities in the ocean, as indicated by the fighter jet that took off from an aircraft carrier and approached the JMSDF P-3C. Photographs show that the J-15 was equipped with two types of air-to-air missiles. It is noteworthy that despite the fact that onboard weapons limit the fuel load of a fighter for a ski jump takeoff, the J-15 tailed the P-3C for as long as 80 minutes on June 8.

On the other hand, the weakness of Chinese aircraft carriers when operating in the Pacific is that they have to pass through the first island chain (linking Japan’s Nansei Islands, Taiwan, and the Philippines). From the time of passage, their operations are monitored in real time, as indicated in the latest case. Aircraft carriers that can be located are extremely vulnerable, becoming easy targets for anti-ship missiles and submarines.

Moreover, ski jump-type aircraft carriers such as the Liaoning and Shandong cannot operate large and heavy early warning aircraft that require an accelerated, catapult-assisted takeoff. Lacking early warning aircraft, such carriers are ineffective against low-flying fighters approaching from beyond the horizon. However, the Chinese Navy’s third aircraft carrier Fujian, currently under construction, will be equipped with catapults and is said to be carring a KJ-600 early warning aircraft. If the Fujian is commissioned, capabilities of a Chinese Navy carrier strike group will be greatly enhanced.

Use Iwo Jima Island as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”

Chinese aircraft carriers must not be allowed to run rampant in the western Pacific. Japan’s air defense and surveillance network has remained focused on the north since the U.S.-Soviet Cold War days, leaving its Pacific side surprisingly unguarded. Japan should promptly install anti-aircraft radars on Kita-Daito Island (Okinawa Prefecture) and Minami-Torishima Island (Tokyo) and fortify Iwo Jima Island (Tokyo), the cornerstone of the second island chain, into an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” to develop a strong second island chain in coordination with the U.S. territory of Guam.

Kunio Orita is a member of the JINF Planning Committee and a special professor at Reitaku University. He is a retired Lieutenant General of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.