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Hideo Tamura

【#1278】High Tariffs on China: The Strategy for Ukraine Peace

Hideo Tamura ／ 2025.08.27 (Wed)


August 25, 2025

　
While U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts have been facing severe challenges, there is a strategy to move forward: using high tariffs to stop China’s support for Russia.

China supporting Russia’s war

Russia can continue its war of attrition in Ukraine despite Western economic sanctions because China continues to provide massive support to Russia through both trade and finance.

China’s crude oil imports from Russia reached $61.6 billion in 2024. The sum far exceeds an increase of $39.7 billion in Russian military spending in 2024 from the previous year, as estimated by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (-SIPRI). Moreover, China buys Russian crude oil at prices that are about 20% higher than international market prices. Russia can use the extra revenue of $8.4 billion for the war in Ukraine.

That’s not all. China exports attack drones, dual-use semiconductors, and construction machinery, as well as consumer goods, to Russia. In addition, China supports Russia’s international financial transactions and foreign currency acquisition through Hong Kong, a hub of the international financial market.

Trump’s faltering China policy

Trump has rarely condemned China’s support for Russia in public. In contrast, Trump condemned India’s purchases of Russian crude oil and weapons and imposed 25% reciprocal tariffs on India in late July. India is importing Russian crude oil on a scale similar to China’s, though at cheaper prices than international market prices.

Some see the high tariffs on India as a warning from the Trump administration to the Chinese government of President Xi Jinping over its support for Russia, though there is no information to back this view. Trump is strongly seeking a meeting with Xi. If the meeting is materialized, it is not entirely out of the question that he might urge China to end its support for Russia. However, Trump is reputed as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) when it comes to China.

In fact, the Trump administration imposed 145% tariffs on China on April 10 and lowered them to 30% tentatively a month later. Trump threatened to raise the tariffs to 80-85% if U.S.-China negotiations fail to be concluded by August 12. Eventually, however, he extended the deadline to November 9.

Punitive tariffs should work against China, Russia

Trump tariffs hurt Western economies like Japan, while bypassing Russia, which is destroying the world order, and appearing weak-kneed on China. However, the weapon of high tariffs should be able to fully demonstrate its power against China and Russia.

The Russian economy is exhausted by double-digit inflation and interest rates as high as 20%. In China, the bottom of the real estate bubble burst recession has yet to come into sight, with deflationary pressure growing. Shouldn’t Japan join forces with Europe to press the Trump administration to use high tariffs on China to stop its support for Russia?

Hideo Tamura is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist for the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.