Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
The Chinese Communist Party adopted the Central Committee recommendations that set the basic course for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee, which ended on October 23. The defense-related part of the recommendations placed greater emphasis than those for the 14th plan five years ago on strengthening new-domain forces, such as unmanned equipment and equipment for outer space, cyber, and electronic warfare, as well as on practical combat training.

Military buildup even amid economic downturn

In terms of categorization, the 14th Five-Year Plan featured two defense-related items: military buildup and military-civil fusion. This time, an item concerning the leadership and management of the armed forces has been added, bringing the total to three. This may be designed to enhance the CCP’s control and law-based management of the People’s Liberation Army in response to the massive purge from the party of senior military officials announced at the session.

Regarding military buildup, the recommendations significantly increased the description of new-domain forces. They said: “We should advance the systematic development of new-domain forces with new combat capabilities to boost their scale and meet actual combat needs. We should fast-track the development of unmanned, intelligent combat forces and our capabilities to counter them.” The recommendations thus vowed to promote the deployment and practical operation of new-domain equipment.

As for military-civil fusion, the phrase “coordinated development of national defense and economy” in the 14th plan was deleted. Instead, the recommendations said, “We should move faster to develop strategic capabilities in emerging fields and work toward effective integration between new quality productive forces and new combat capabilities so that the development of one helps drive that of the other.” They thus emphasized the effective use of civilian capabilities in new warfare domains. China apparently is determined to promote the development of new-domain forces even amid the current economic downturn.

Live-fire training available at a mock Taiwanese presidential office

This trajectory of national defense has already been reflected in military training. At the Zhurihe training base, China’s largest exercise ground, a mock Taiwanese presidential office training area, which includes buildings modeled after presidential and other Taiwanese government offices, has been expanded since 2020. A large ammunition depot area was developed by 2022, paving the way for live-fire training on the same terrain as at the actual Taiwanese presidential office.

Furthermore, “Mock Taipei City” facilities modeled after the road network around Taiwan’s presidential office have been confirmed in an area separate from Zhurihe. The facilities appears to have been in use since 2024. Satellite images of the area have shown objects presumed to be drones and military vehicles with antennas, as well as civilian vehicles, indicating that the site may be used for testing new-domain equipment and conducting operational evaluations by relevant units.

Face up to Chinese military’s current status and trajectory

As noted above, the Chinese military has already been promoting the development of new-domain forces and practical combat training. It will further increase the allocation of resources to these areas during the 15th Five-Year Plan period to accelerate the buildup of new-domain forces in cooperation with the civilian sector.

Japan should face up to the current status and trajectory of the Chinese military and promote the development of defense capabilities that can effectively deter China by updating three strategic documents, including the National Security Strategy, ahead of schedule.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.