Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

  • HOME
  • Speaking Out
  • 【#1315】China’s New Aircraft Carrier Can Operate on 2nd Island Chain
Maki Nakagawa

【#1315】China’s New Aircraft Carrier Can Operate on 2nd Island Chain

Maki Nakagawa ／ 2025.11.19 (Wed)


November 17, 2025

　
On November 5, the Chinese Navy commissioned its third aircraft carrier, Fujian, at the Sanya Naval Base in Hainan Province located in China’s Southern Theater Command. It is China’s first carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult for launching aircraft. The Fujian is capable of operating beyond the first island chain that extends from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines, leading the Chinese Navy to make a major step towards its goal of developing into a blue-water navy.

Fujian to block U.S. forces’ access to Taiwan

China already has two aircraft carriers, but both use ski-jump launch systems, which cannot launch heavy aircraft such as fixed-wing early warning planes. This means that when one of them faces off against a U.S. carrier with fixed-wing early warning aircraft that covers wide area to detect Chinese aircraft earlier than the Chinese carrier finds U.S. planes, the Chinese carrier must receive support from radars deployed on the Chinese coast in order to fight on an equal footing with the U.S. carrier. Therefore, it was difficult for the ski-jump carriers to operate in waters east of the first island chain.

However, the just-commissioned Fujian equipped with an electromagnetic catapult has successfully tested fixed-wing early warning aircraft’s launching and landing. If capabilities of Chinese and U.S. early warning aircraft are equivalent, the Fujian may be viewed as allowing the Chinese Navy to operate beyond the first island chain and on the second chain that extends from the Bonin Islands to Guam.

The purpose of the Chinese carrier’s operations beyond the first island chain is to block U.S. access to Taiwan in a contingency. The Chinese forces would wait in waters between the first and second island chains, also using anti-ship ballistic missiles launched from mainland China, to block the U.S. forces approaching from the direction of Guam to support Taiwan.

Increasing presence in the Pacific during peacetime

The Fujian’s commissioning has allowed the Chinese Navy to operate three carriers on a rotational basis covering maintenance checks, training, and mission. However, a true rotation system cannot be realized with three carriers with different performances. The three-carrier rotation system’s operation in a contingency will be significantly limited due to abovementioned constraints attributable to the other two carriers.

In peacetime, however, even ski-jump carriers can cross the first island chain and operate in the Pacific. In June, the two ski-jump carriers operated simultaneously in the Pacific. If one of the three Chinese aircraft carriers is always active in the Pacific, China may continuously surveil Japanese and U.S. naval units and gather intelligence on Japanese and U.S. surface warships and submarines, accelerating its accumulation of data required in an emergency.

However, such rotation system may not be established immediately. China’s second aircraft carrier, Shandong, entered the Pacific Ocean for the first time three years and four months after its commissioning. It is uncertain whether the Fujian will take more time due to the first ever electromagnetic catapult or less time based on experiences with the Shandong.

Undoubtedly, however, the Fujian will operate beyond the first island chain in a few years. In pursuit of a wartime carrier rotation system, China will continue the construction of at least two more electromagnetic catapult carriers. We must keep an eye on the future operationalization of the Fujian and the construction status of new Chinese carriers.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.