Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Takashi Arimoto

【#1401】Placing Hopes on Okinawa Governor-Elect Koja

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2026.09.16 (Wed)


September 14, 2026

　
Genta Koja, 42, a former deputy Naha mayor backed by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and others, won in Okinawa Prefecture’s gubernatorial election on September 14, putting an end to the left-leaning “All Okinawa” group’s prefectural government that has confronted Japan’s central government for many years. It is very significant that the election result will pave the way for balancing realistic security policy with economic development in the southernmost Japanese prefecture.

The biggest effects of Koja's victory will be the enhancement of Okinawa's defense infrastructure and progress in resolving its U.S. base issue. There is great hope that the Okinawa government under new Governor Koja will break the deadlock over the removal of the dangers posed by the U.S. Marine Futenma air station and the planned relocation of the air station to Henoko in the same prefecture, and resume practical dialogue with the central government based on mutual trust. In the prolonged deadlock, the Okinawa government has repeated court battles and emotional disputes with the central government.

Expected smooth coordination with SDF

What is most important for the new Okinawa government is to fundamentally improve the operational environment of the Self-Defense Forces. Under incumbent Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki, 66, effective restrictions have been imposed on the defense preparations such as the SDF’s use of sea and air ports, its contingency training, and shelter development.

As tensions in the Taiwan Strait increase due to Chinese military intimidation activities, Okinawa Prefecture's smooth coordination with the SDF to promptly establish preparations for protecting Okinawan residents and a rapid contingency response posture will directly contribute to enhancing Japan's deterrence.

Furthermore, the new Okinawa government will also contribute to curbing the prefecture’s increased tilt toward China under Governor Tamaki. The excessive rapprochement with China under the name of independent regional diplomacy has carried a risk of creating opportunities for China’s influence operations. The Koja prefectural government is expected to work as a bulwark to firmly block Chinese infiltration operations into Japan’s border islands.

Learn lessons from a former conservative Okinawa government

However, we must not indulge in unconditional optimism about the birth of the conservative Okinawa government. What must be remembered is bitter lessons from the conservative prefectural government of Keiichi Inamine who took power from the progressives in November 1998. The Inamine government clung to linking Okinawa’s acceptance of U.S. military bases to local economic promotion and fell into a serious dilemma between local public opinion against U.S. bases and the central government that rejected his proposal for a 15-year limit on the U.S. use of the Futenma replacement facility, thereby ultimately leading Okinawan people to be widely divided and frustrated. Such a mistake should not be repeated.

What is required of the Koja Okinawa government is not merely endorsing central government policies or reverting to dependence on national subsidies. It is to position the return of U.S. bases and the use of their former sites as a catalyst for autonomous economic growth and to establish a “self-sustaining economic structure” that does not rely on subsidies. It is expected that the Koja prefectural government will build an equal partnership with the central government and, through dialogue that protects the dignity of Okinawan residents, solidify Okinawa’s defense posture.

The real challenge for new Governor Koja is to look squarely at the setback of the Inamine government and govern Okinawa without excessively depending on the central government.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.