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【#1416】Japan Should Intensify engagement with U.S. Congress

Yasushi Tomiyama ／ 2026.11.10 (Tue)


November 9, 2026

　
In the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, President Donald Trump’s Republican Party suffered a crushing defeat. The United States and the world are expected to plunge into even greater difficulties. It is only natural for the international community to grow anxious about Trump’s foreign policy in the remaining two years of his term as president.

Congress can use appropriations authority to check Trump

While the final election results are still uncertain as of this writing, the Republican Party may lose around 50 seats in the House and seven to nine seats in the Senate, allowing the Democratic Party to take control of both chambers. For the Republicans, the latest election results represent one of the largest postwar midterm defeats, matching or surpassing the losses they suffered shortly after President Richard Nixon’s resignation over the Watergate scandal.

Going forward, the Democratic-led Congress will confront the Trump administration fiercely, plunging domestic politics into a gridlock, while Trump will seek to satisfy his desire for self-aggrandizement through foreign policy.

In this situation, the biggest concern is Trump’s Taiwan policy. Were Taiwan to fall under China’s control, not only Japan but also the entire free world would face serious consequences. It is almost certain that Chinese President Xi Jinping will win a fourth term as general secretary at the Communist Party congress in the latter half of 2027. If Taiwanese President Lai Chingte, regarded by China as a Taiwan independence advocate, is reelected in the January 2028 presidential election, we should assume the danger of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will increase. This will be precisely the moment when Trump’s Taiwan policy is put to the test. Under no circumstances should Trump prioritize economic deals with China in a way that leads Xi to miscalculate that the U.S. is reluctant to defend Taiwan and that the opportunity to annex Taiwan has arrived.

When it comes to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Trump could attempt to impose peace terms that favor Russia on Ukraine.

While foreign policy falls under the president’s exclusive domain, Congress also has the power to indirectly influence foreign policy. The most useful lever is its authority to approve budget appropriations. For example, Congress could require the implementation of large-scale arms sales to Taiwan or the resumption of military assistance to Ukraine as a condition for passing the annual defense authorization bill, which outlines defense policy and spending. If Congress wants to stop the Iran war, it could refuse to approve additional war funding.

Raising the banner of protecting freedom and democracy

The Embassy of Japan in Washington is one of the few foreign embassies with a dedicated congressional affairs unit tasked specifically with congressional outreach. The unit should be expanded, and efforts to engage Congress should be strengthened. Japanese lawmakers should also vigorously expand parliamentary diplomacy with members of Congress.

Now is the time for Japan to raise the banner of the universal values on which it stands, namely freedom, democracy, and the rule of law, and clearly show the direction that the global community should pursue. Japan should express a strong will to share these values with the U.S. and continue walking together with it. For the importance of the U.S. as Japan’s only ally has not changed in the slightest. Furthermore, Japan should seek to become a nation that has the will and strength to confront crises as a responsible state, through a robust update of three security documents, including the National Security Strategy, and the sure achievement of constitutional amendment. In doing so, Japan should seek to become a nation that leads the international community.

Yasushi Tomiyama is a senior fellow and Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and former foreign news editor and commentator for the Jiji Press.