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【#1412】Japan Should Be Prepared to Defy Great Powers’ Domestic Political Timeline

Hiroshi Yuasa ／ 2026.10.27 (Tue)


October 26, 2026

　
Will the world move towards U.S.-China “great power confrontation” or U.S.-China-Russia “great power management”? Domestic political calendars in great powers over the next few years may increase the incentive for their leaders to seek opportunities through external action in order to consolidate their power or cope with domestic policy deadlocks. The whirlwind timeline includes the U.S. midterm elections in November this year, the Chinese Communist Party congress in 2027, and the Taiwanese and U.S. presidential elections in 2028. As this series of events will be directly linked to geopolitical risks, Japan and other middle powers must be prepared to be inevitably drawn into those risks.

U.S. President Donald Trump has tended to use stopgap diplomacy for domestic political purposes and short-term deals. The September summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended up as a spectacular political drama because they had their respective reasons to domestically showcase themselves as world leaders. What seemed like the only agreement at the summit was a temporary attempt to buy time through the establishment of a “relationship of strategic stability” between the G2, the United States and China.

U.S. and Chinese policies affected by domestic situation

If the Republicans lose the U.S. midterm elections, budget bills will be blocked by the Democrat-led Congress, leading to a domestic political stalemate. The weakening of the administration may cause moves away from Trump not only in Congress but also within the administration. When domestic politics stall, the president's attention may turn to foreign policy and trade, areas that can be shaped through executive authority. The remaining two years of the Trump administration may feature increased unpredictability through such measures as further tariff pressure on allies.

Regarding China, Trump may waver between taking a tough stance to maintain his prestige and negotiating a comprehensive deal. Meanwhile, for Chinese President Xi, 2027 should leave no room to pursue the annexation of Taiwan, as his priority will be securing a fourth term as CCP general secretary at the party congress.

In 2028, the political dynamics both in the U.S. and China will change. If Taiwanese President Lai Chingte is reelected in January, Xi, having successfully navigated the CCP congress, could pivot from consolidating his rule to changing the status quo. At the same time, the U.S. will be entering its presidential primary season, becoming immersed in inward-looking politics and less attentive to external affairs. China will be tempted to seize this strategic opportunity.

2027: A critical year for strengthening deterrence against China

Therefore, how to manage the year 2027 on the eve of the storm may be critical for middle powers such as Japan, Australia, and European nations. The year will be marked by a mix of the U.S.’ unpredictable unilateralism and China's calculated orientation towards stability.

Japan must take into account the diplomatic costs of maintaining U.S. deterrence in East Asia, while addressing the Trump administration's demand for increased defense spending. Regarding China, Japan should strengthen “deterrence by denial” to demonstrate the prohibitive cost of aggression while Xi is cautious in 2027. At the same time, Japan should support the U.S.’ swift provision of weapons to Taiwan, while avoiding excessive provocations. It should also adhere to multilateral diplomacy to counter China in concert with Europe, while exploring opportunities for Japan-China summit talks.

The era when the U.S. like Atlas of Greek mythology upheld the world is over. The way for Japan to confront the looming national crisis is to build a multilayered web of deterrence, while defying great-power collusion and coercion.

Hiroshi Yuasa is a Planning Committee member and a senior fellow at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. He is also a columnist for the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.