Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), a U.S. congressional advisory panel, issued an annual report on November 20, anticipating that China could have as many as 351 submarines and missile-equipped surface ships in the Asia Pacific by 2020 (Pages 17, 301 and 329). By the year 2020, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy plans to take control of waters within the so-called second island chain extending from Japan's Ogasawara Islands to Guam under its construction schedule. In a manner to forecast the control, more than 200 Chinese coral poaching vessels recently appeared in waters around the Ogasawara Islands. This reminded us that controversy over the Senkaku Islands emerged when more than 100 armed Chinese fishing boats intruded into Japan's territorial waters around the island group in 1978.

Xi may be tolerating coral poaching
　　　　　Some 30% of these coral poaching vessels were from Fujian Province and 70% from Zhejiang Province. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ever worked in Fujian for 17 years and in Zhejiang for five years and may be able to control these provinces. After becoming chairman of the National Security Commission earlier this year overseeing internal and external security issues, however, Xi might have tacitly, if not positively, tolerated poaching by fishing vessels linked to the China Coast Guard put under control by the Ministry of Public Security.
　　　　　The coral poaching might have followed tactics written in “Sun Tzu, The Art of War” by ancient Chinese military strategist. Chapter 3 of the book, Offensive Strategy, says "If double his strength, divide him." Chapter 6, Weaknesses and Strengths, says, "Army avoids strength and strikes weakness." Under these tactics, China might have chosen to divide a limited number of Japanese Coast Guard cutters into a group for the Senkaku Islands and another for the Ogasawara Islands and pay attention to the Ogasawara Islands that are less defended. Chinese naval ships have increasingly approached the second island chain over recent years (Pages 254 and 283 of the USCC report).

Break free from "exclusively defense-oriented policy"
　　　　　To counter such Chinese moves, Japan must enhance its alliance with the United States by exercising the right of collective self-defense (Pages 421, 546 and 553 of the USCC report) and bolstering the capabilities of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (Pages 422-3). Defense spending should also be efficiently used for increasing offensive capabilities.
　　　　　The Maritime Self-Defense Force's Aegis destroyers, like U.S. Aegis destroyers, can be equipped with anti-ground and anti-ship Tomahawk cruise missiles. But they are not so under Japan's exclusively defense -oriented policy. The MSDF's CH-60 helicopters are not equipped with Penguin anti-ship missiles that are mounted on the same helicopters of the U.S. Navy. While U.S. officers have noted that buying Predator unmanned aerial vehicles with offensive capabilities would be more efficient than procuring Global Hawks that are several times more expensive and have no offensive capabilities, the SDF are attempting to introduce the Global Hawk.
　　　　　The USCC report indicated concern about potentially weakening U.S. extended deterrence, particularly with respect to Japan (Pages 18 and 331). Then, Japan must voluntarily increase its deterrence. If Japan breaks free from the “exclusively defense-oriented policy,” which is nonsense from the strategic theory, it may be able to reduce Japanese weakness that makes it impossible for Japan, with a limited defense budget, to attack China demonstrating a remarkable military buildup.

Dr. Fumio Ota is retired Vice Admiral of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force and a member of the Planning Committee, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.