Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　　　　　On May 20, Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ingwen became Taiwan’s 14th president. I had been interested in what policy direction the first woman Taiwanese president would offer after a pro-China policy of the previous administration headed by Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) leader Ma Yingjeou. Eventually, I was relieved to find her inauguration address as gentle and cool.

New Taiwanese president’s inaugural address
　　　　　A presidential inauguration address is different from any academic report required to be logical. Taiwanese people include not only Tsai supporters but also Kuomintang members and other oppositions, and independent voters who belong to neither of the two main political parties. At the other side of the Taiwan Straits is China that attempts to use every possible mean to obstruct anti-China speeches and behaviors. At the other side of the Pacific is the United States that presses Taiwan to refrain from disturbing the situation. Excellent international political skills are required for writing a presidential inauguration address that differs from any academic paper that must be only reasoned.
　　　　　From her inauguration address, President Tsai gently dropped the so-called 1992 Taiwan-China consensus that is said to have reaffirmed the “One China” principle. She only said she respected the historical fact that the two sides’ liaison agencies had a meeting in 1992. The Chinese side may have sensed she denied the existence of the 1992 agreement. The Central Taiwan Work Office of the Communist Party of China commented the address as an incomplete answer failing to clearly admit the 1992 agreement. The comment that the address did not get a perfect score appears more like a reservation on the Chinese side.

Deepening relations with Japan, U.S. and Europe
　　　　　The new Taiwanese president clarified Taiwan’s direction, offering to deepen relations with friendly democratic countries including Japan, the United States and European nations and proactively participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement and a “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership” covering a wider range of Asian countries. Tsai also called for a New Southward Policy under which Taiwan would focus its investment on ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries and India. It was politically significant that the new Taiwanese president strategically offered to deepen Taiwan’s relations with countries with which Taiwan shares the universal values of freedom, democracy, the rule of law and human rights, while tactically making a common-sense pledge to promote the peaceful, stable development of Cross-Strait (Taiwan-China) relations.
　　　　　A matter of concern is that Tsai proposed to shelve territorial disputes in the East China and South China Seas to launch joint development in the region. How Taiwan thinks about the East China Sea in which Taiwan’s friendly nation of Japan has a large stake may become an issue in the future.
　　　　　To what extent does Japan understand the fact that the new Taiwanese leader is exposed to China’s tangible and intangible pressures? Backed by massive military spending standing 22 times higher than Taiwan’s (Sankei Shimbun dated May 21), China carried out a landing exercise by ground, naval and air force units in southeastern China days before Tsai’s inauguration. In March, China established diplomatic relations with Gambia, which had such relations with Taiwan. Is a recent decline in Chinese visitors to Taiwan related to the pressures? Taiwan will remain tense.

Tadae Takubo is Vice President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.