Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
On August 26, a Chinese Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft violated Japan’s territorial airspace off the Danjo Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture. The first Chinese military aircraft that intruded into Japan’s territorial air belongs to the Eastern Theater, one of five major theaters of Chinese forces in charge of military operations against Taiwan and Japan. The aircraft of this type have been found flying around Japan.

While it is unclear whether the Chinese military aircraft’s violation of Japan’s airspace was intentional or negligent, Japan should pay attention to (1) the potential expansion of the scope of intelligence-gathering against Japan by Chinese forces, especially the Eastern Theater, and (2) the potential enhancement of Chinese forces’ sea and air defense capabilities against Japan.

Expansion of the scope of intelligence-gathering

Regarding the first point, Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft have been flying around Japan’s Nansei Island chain extending south from Kyushu. In the latest incident, however, the aircraft approached the western part of Kyushu for the first time ever, indicating that Chinese forces might have begun to promote intelligence-gathering regarding the Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s radar sites in Kyushu and the Sasebo base of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the U.S. Navy, and check the scrambling posture of the JASDF Western Air Defense Force.

We can say the latest violation of the territorial airspace occurred as Chinese forces give priority to the intelligence gathering mission rather than consideration for Japan in the process of expanding the scope of intelligence-gathering against Japan.

Demonstrating enhanced defense capabilities to Xi

The next point to pay attention to is the Eastern Theater’s potential enhancement of responses to Japan.

Behind the enhancement may be Chinese Communist Party General Secretary and President Xi Jinping’s instruction to strengthen the border, sea, and air defense at the 16th group study session of the CCP Central Committee Politburo on July 30. Xi emphasized that “advancing the building of modern border, sea, and air defense” was “of great significance to comprehensively promote the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation.” He instructed to “grasp the new circumstances, characteristics, and requirements of the work to develop border, sea, and air defense” and “strive towards building strong, secure, and modern border, sea, and air defense.” It is imperative for the military to implement the instruction issued just before the August 1 anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army.

Furthermore, Xi inspected the China Coast Guard’s East China Sea area command office in November 2023 and instructed the office to improve law enforcement capabilities for the protection of maritime interests apparently with Japan in mind. The command is included in the covering area of the Eastern Theater and is in charge of Japan’s Senkaku Islands to which China has made territorial claims. The instruction might have prompted Chinese forces to respond to the “new circumstances, characteristics, and requirements” regarding sea and air defense against Japan.

In recent developments, the Eastern Theater faced a JMSDF ship’s intrusion into Chinese territorial waters in July and saw Japan’s law enforcement in which the Japan Coast Guard rescued a Mexican who landed on Uotsuri Island of the Senkakus and referred the person to prosecutors in August. So, the Eastern Theater might have attempted to demonstrate its new efforts for sea and air defense to Xi by implementing intelligence-gathering operations against Japan.

Chinese forces may intensify activities around Japan

From now on, Chinese forces, including the Eastern Theater, will come up with new responses to Japan in the process of developing border, sea, and air defense. The latest airspace violation is just the beginning of such responses. Chinese forces are likely to intensify their activities by new means and in new locations in the sea and airspace around Japan.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and former Commander of Basic Intelligence Unit, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.