Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

  • HOME
  • Speaking Out
  • 【#1374】Can Japan Protect Its People While Shelving Nuclear Discussions?
Kiyofumi Iwata

【#1374】Can Japan Protect Its People While Shelving Nuclear Discussions?

Kiyofumi Iwata ／ 2026.06.02 (Tue)


June 1, 2026

　
On May 25, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Research Commission on Security approved a draft proposal for updating the Japanese government’s three security-related documents late this year. The proposal emphasizes responses to new ways of fighting using drones and artificial intelligence, and war-sustaining capabilities for prolonged wars. Both are important. Regarding the crucial issue of how to prevent nuclear attacks, however, the proposal goes no further than touching on the traditional framework of “further ensuring the reliability of extended deterrence based on nuclear deterrence provided by the United States.” It appears to have deliberately avoided essential discussions on how to confront nuclear threats.

Nuclear use in a Taiwan contingency growing realistic

In reality, however, Japan cannot be secure only by depending on the U.S. On May 28, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank, released its Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2026 ahead of this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, which brings together Asian and other defense ministers. In the report, the IISS warned that the Asia-Pacific region “can no longer be classified as fully at peace.” “Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing,” it said.

It is entirely conceivable that if a Taiwan contingency occurs, Japan’s political, economic, social infrastructure and its military facilities could become subject to nuclear threats or attacks. It is overly optimistic to think that only Japan will be free from nuclear threats. The U.S. Congressional Research Service has noted that the primary stated purpose of U.S. regional nuclear deterrence capabilities has been to deter “the limited use of nuclear weapons” by Russia, China, and North Korea, and their “nuclear coercion.” What we must face now is not just a full-scale nuclear war. A more realistic scenario is that nuclear weapons could be used locally as an extension of a conventional war.

LDP should not run away from nuclear threats

Despite the looming crisis, the LDP proposal fails to address the nuclear issue in detail, suggesting that the ruling party does not fully grasp the gravity of the current situation. House of Representatives lawmaker Keitaro Ono, secretary-general of the LDP commission, reportedly explained that the proposal refrained from discussing the nuclear issue or calling for revising the three non-nuclear principles because higher-level discussions were required. Is there any organization that can have higher-level discussions than the ruling party that can steer the country? We can’t help but question whether the LDP feels responsible for protecting the people from nuclear threats.

Any strategy that turns a blind eye to nuclear weapons as the greatest threat cannot serve as a shield to protect the people in the worst-case scenario. What is now required of the ruling LDP is not to shelve the nuclear issue or fear public opinion being divided, but to directly ask the people what to do to prevent Japan from being attacked again with nuclear weapons.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.