Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
China has apparently conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan and in the western Pacific. Although there has been no official announcement by China so far, China Coast Guard ships’ peculiar navigations from December 6 and China’s designation of seven flight restriction zones including those off Taiwan between December 9 and 11 indicate that the exercises including preparations have taken place between December 6 and 11. Taiwan has stepped up its alert to the increased activity of Chinese navy and CCG.

Training for naval and CCG deployments

According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, Chinese navy from its Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theaters and CCG vessels moved into waters around Taiwan and the western Pacific, deploying in waters off the eastern coast of Taiwan and between the first island chain extending southwest from Japan towards Taiwan and the Philippines and the second island chain extending south from Japan towards Guam to simulate the naval blockade of Taiwan and the so-called anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) operations in an attempt to turn the Taiwan Strait into China’s inland sea.

Chinese forces’ “United Sword” exercises conducted around Taiwan in May and October this year were hosted by the Eastern Theater. Given the participation of naval forces from the three theaters this time, the Central Military Commission might have hosted them. If so, the latest exercises would have been at a higher level.

The absence of China’s announcement of the latest exercises suggests that while the “United Sword” drills were political exercises designed for demonstration purposes, the latest exercises were conducted in a practical manner with information control on the initial deployment of the navy and CCG in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

A Senkaku contingency integrated with a Taiwan contingency

As previously mentioned, this time CCG began its activities on December 6. That CCG ships which regularly navigate around Japan’s Senkaku Islands conducted their monthly intrusion into Japan’s territorial waters around the islands on December 6 might not be unrelated to the latest exercises.

It should also be noted that four CCG ships, all of which were armed with 76mm guns for the first time, entered the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Island on the same day to replace the CCG ships that intruded into the Japan’s territorial waters. This might indicate that the training was done on the assumption that four CCG ships armed with 76mm guns would be dispatched to the Senkaku Islands in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

Currently, Japan Coast Guard patrol ships are equipped with up to 40mm guns that would be effective against CCG ships if JCG ships are running side by side with CCG ships in waters around the Senkaku Islands. Given that 76 mm guns have a range about three times that of 40mm guns, however, it is doubtful that JCG ships could effectively respond to out-of-range attacks from CCG ships armed with 76mm guns that could be dispatched to the waters.

If JCG ships were considered unable to respond to such CCG attacks, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force could be asked to conduct so-called “maritime security operations.” Could JCG and JMSDF share information in such a case? Could maritime security operations be ready to be issued swiftly? If JMSDF ships were deployed to deal with CCG ships, China would trumpet that Japan used military forces against CCG ships engaged in policing operations and use such MSDF action as an excuse to launch counterattack by the navy.

In consideration of the current situation in which China is believed to be training for dispatching more CCG ships around the Senkaku Islands in the event of a Taiwan contingency, Japan should make local and central government preparations for responding to such reinforcement and step up its readiness for public opinion warfare and legal warfare.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and former Commander of Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.