Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
https://jinf.jp/

Speaking out

Yoshiko Sakurai

【#1381】U.S. Changes Provide Opportunity for Japan

Yoshiko Sakurai ／ 2026.06.25 (Thu)


June 23, 2026

　
The memorandum of understanding on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire underscored the United States’ political defeat. Despite overwhelming Iran with unparalleled military power, the Wall Street Journal criticized the MOU as resulting from “a position of U.S. weakness,” influenced by “fear of high oil prices and a falling stock market going into the midterm elections.”

The limitations of the use of force without strategy, together with U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated statements that seemed to abandon long-standing allies such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the most difficult moment, serve as a warning to U.S. allies.

Takaichi proposal contributing to shaping a new order

Even so, neither Israel nor the Group of Seven allies can survive without relying on U.S. power. The reality is stark: the G7 summit held in Evian, France, in June became an occasion for accommodating Mr. Trump, with member countries competing to win favor with the U.S.

Amid the U.S.-China rivalry, U.S. strategist Hal Brands and some others talk about the need for middle powers including Japan to draft a Plan B. In this context, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposal at the Evian Summit may lead to shaping a new order in a post-Trump era. Japan has come under stronger pressure from China as the world’s greatest threat than any other country and been destined to stay ahead of others in dealing with the China issue. Based on that experience, Takaichi’s proposal for the G7 countries and their partners to jointly stockpile rare earths and other critical minerals as well as oil was highly praised as representing Japan’s determination to shape a new order.

A series of joint economic projects constitutes one of the pillars of what Brands and others call a Plan B. Another indispensable pillar is for Japan to assume the role of driving multilayered international cooperation in the field of security.

Now is the time to break away from the “postwar regime”

What Japan needs is to break away from the “postwar regime,” as advocated by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. For 80 years after World War II, Japan has lived through a strategic vacuum. Not a few people have come to the stark realization that the postwar regime symbolized by the Japanese constitution cannot respond to changes in the international community. The Japan Institute for National Fundamentals has likewise called for strengthening military capabilities, addressing the issue of nuclear weapons, and accelerating constitutional revision.

Yet at every turn, the U.S. has stood in the way more than any other country. Now, however, the U.S. is undergoing profound changes. Washington is urging U.S. allies, including Japan, to stand on their own, as the U.S. is no longer an Atlas carrying the world on its shoulders. It is calling on them to strengthen deterrence against the threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea, in coordination with or in support of the U.S. In short, it is pressing its allies to develop a Plan B for a post-Trump era. Isn’t this the greatest opportunity for Japan?

Postwar Japan, having forgotten its national character and abandoned the will to stand on its own, could not, in any true sense, be considered a sovereign nation. Let us fundamentally reshape the Japan of these past eighty years. The time is now for Japan to break down the harmful effects of the postwar regime one by one and revitalize itself as an independent nation. The time has come for Japan to gladly accept the collapse of the international order and take advantage of the collapse for its revitalization.

Yoshiko Sakurai is President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.