Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
The possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit has emerged. If an agreement is reached on the North Korean nuclear issue, a Japan-North Korea summit may be held, providing a chance to recover Japanese abductees from North Korea.

Kim seeks meeting with Trump in Autumn

On August 16, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a significant reduction of U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises set to begin the following day, stating that the exercises were sending a “totally inappropriate and hostile” signal to the North.

The reduction at this timing may have been requested by Pyongyang at U.S.-North Korea talks underway behind the scenes. There were bilateral contacts in Singapore in June and in Thailand in July. On August 17, Trump admitted that he had a positive response to his overtures from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In early August, North Korean sources told this author that Kim was intensifying preparations for a U.S.-North Korea summit, considering the timing of the meeting after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s U.S. visit in September.

Witnessing U.S. and Israeli bombing raids that killed Iran’s supreme leadership, Kim has feared that he might be the next target. Trump is well aware of this.

On August 19, Trump said: “I cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. And I know Kim very well, and he is going to be fine.” This remark can be interpreted as a message that what was done in Iran would not be repeated in North Korea.

Pyongyang may accept ICBM dismantlement

Trump also stated that North Korea possessed 57 nuclear weapons. If the specific number is accurate, Kim would become suspicious about who leaked the top North Korean secret to the U.S.

During the first Trump administration, U.S.-North Korea nuclear negotiations broke down because North Korea underestimated U.S. intelligence capabilities and attempted to conceal enriched uranium production facilities in Kangson, south of Pyongyang. Trump may have mentioned the top-secret number of nuclear weapons to signal that any similar deception would be futile as he is aware of detailed information about the nuclear weapons North Korea possesses.

It has recently come to light that Kim at his second meeting with Trump in Hanoi in 2019 rejected Trump’s proposal to lift some of U.N. sanctions on North Korea in return for Pyongyang’s dismantlement of intercontinental ballistic missiles. This time, Pyongyang is said to be considering the ICBM dismantlement. If that happens, Trump would be able to declare that he secured the safety of the U.S. mainland that the previous Biden administration failed achieve. Regarding Japan’s and South Korea’s concerns about North Korean medium- and short-range nuclear missiles, Washington would likely persuade Tokyo and Seoul that once the safety of the U.S. mainland is secured, the United States would have a free hand to strike North Korea, thereby strengthening extended deterrence for Japan and South Korea.

Japan’s economic assistance as a negotiating chip

At the Hanoi meeting, Trump told Kim to meet with then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to resolve the abduction issue, and Kim responded positively. Trump had made it clear that if North Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons, he would lift sanctions but would not provide economic assistance. Trump told Kim that North Korea would receive economic assistance from Japan on condition that the abduction issue be resolved. At a possible upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit, Trump would again likely use Japan’s economic assistance as a negotiating chip.

A chance to resolve the abduction issue may be emerging. It is hoped that the Sanae Takaichi administration will work closely with Trump, collect and fully consolidate information on the survival and whereabouts of Japanese abductees, and achieve the return of all victims.

Tsutomu Nishioka is a senior fellow and a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a specially-appointed professor at Reitaku University. He covers South and North Koreas.