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Kiyofumi Iwata

【#1257】Wake Up to China’s Enhancement of Invasion Capabilities

Kiyofumi Iwata ／ 2025.06.04 (Wed)


June 2, 2025

　
From May 25 to 29, several Chinese naval vessels, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning, sailed southeast from the East China Sea to the Pacific Ocean through the waters between the main island of Okinawa and Miyako Island, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense. During this period, on May 25-26, approximately 90 aircraft carrier-based fighter takeoffs and landings and around 30 helicopter takeoffs and landings were confirmed in the waters about 240 kilometers north of Kuba Island in the Senkaku Islands and about 190 kilometers northwest of Kume Island.

It is noteworthy that a large number of takeoffs and landings were observed, positioning the Senkaku Islands within the operational radius of the fighter jets, following a China Coast Guard helicopter’s violation of Japan’s territorial airspace around the Senkakus on May 3.

Rehearsal for China’s invasion of Taiwan

The series of actions of the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet should be understood as a rehearsal for the force deployment in anticipation of a Taiwan contingency. In this regard, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said in February that “their aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan right now are not exercises as they call them. ...They are rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland.” As noted by Paparo, Chinese military conducted three large-scale exercises around Taiwan last year and one in April this year, all of which were designed to verify whether operations required for actual combat could be carried out in preparation for China’s invasion of Taiwan.

During last October’s exercise, for example, 111 military aircraft, the most in history, crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait toward the Taiwanese side, simulating the Taiwan blockade from the sea and the sky and the seizure of major ports and regions. In the exercise last December led by the Navy and the China Coast Guard, 90 ships, the most in history, conducted training for an entire blockade surrounding Taiwan and a deployment into the East and South China Seas. In April this year, China conducted training for naval blockade of import routes to Taiwan and live-fire precision strikes at a firing range that mimicked Taiwanese energy facilities.

And this time, the aircraft carrier fleet moved from the East China Sea to the Pacific Ocean and conducted sortie training by carrier-based aircraft. The aircraft carrier fleet might be deployed in the East China Sea or the Pacific during a Taiwan contingency to cut off Japanese and U.S. supporting routes for Taiwan.

China’s threat is real

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed a strong sense of crisis at the Asian Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) in Singapore on May 31, saying that China’s threat is “real and near.” He warned China that its reunification of Taiwan by force would bring about “catastrophic consequences.”

Indeed, the threat posed by China is real. It is a reality that China is seriously seeking to complete capabilities to invade Taiwan. Japan should wake up.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.